What CFB Alpha is
A weekly college football model, published in full, with a record kept in the open.
CFB Alpha treats the college football board the way a research desk treats a market: run every name through the same disciplined model, publish the full output, and keep score. Each Thursday the model ranks every FBS game by the edge SP+ and FPI find against the market, names every game where both agree by 1.5 points or more as a play, and puts the whole board in a free Excel download.
Why publish everything
Most betting content shows only its winners. Publishing the whole board, every week, on a schedule, with no hand selection, means there is nothing to cherry-pick. The record is graded at the number that was published, and it is on the track record page whether it is up or down.
How it works
Every game is projected two independent ways and compared to the market, and an edge only counts when both projections agree. Each edge is then weighted by how competitive the game projects to be, because a points edge is worthless in a game headed for a blowout. The full approach is on the methodology page.
This is commentary, not betting advice
The edges here are small, and most bettors lose. This is analysis and commentary, not a guarantee and not advice.