CFB Alpha
College Football Betting Intelligence
Week 1 · Data report

Week 1 College Football Model: Every Game Through SP+ and FPI

All 42 Week 1 games ranked by the edge two independent models find against the market, with this week's 9 plays and a free Excel download.

CFB Alpha /September 2, 2026 /Lines as of Wed Sep 2, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET
Download the full board (Excel) Free. All 42 games with live formulas, this week's plays, team stats, and the season record.
This week's plays 9 of 42 games
This week 5-3-1 +1.55u
Season 60-48-3 +6.60u
Season ROI +6.1% Full record

A play is every game where SP+ and FPI agree on a side with a dual edge of 1.5+ points, taken at the consensus spread as of publication (a quarter point rounds against the play), -110, 1 unit. How it works

Week 1: the plays, ranked by dual-model edge Dual edge = the smaller of the SP+ and FPI edges against the market, when both models agree on a side. Every game at the floor or above is a play. Coastal Carolina +21 Coastal Carolina vs. West Virginia 5.2 pts PLAY East Carolina +28 East Carolina vs. Alabama 4.9 pts PLAY Notre Dame -20.5 Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame 3.0 pts PLAY Oregon State +20.5 Oregon State vs. Houston 2.9 pts PLAY Tulsa +13.5 Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa 2.9 pts PLAY Stanford +24.5 Miami vs. Stanford 2.6 pts PLAY Florida State +3 SMU vs. Florida State 2.3 pts PLAY Western Michigan +27.5 Western Michigan vs. Michigan 2.1 pts PLAY California +2 UCLA vs. California 2.0 pts PLAY Play: the side both models favor Odds API + CollegeFootballData SP+/FPI Click to enlarge

The plays

9 of the 25 games where both models agree on a side clear the 1.5-point edge floor this week, biggest edge first. The record takes the models' side.

#GamePlayEdgeResult
1 Coastal Carolina vs. West VirginiaSat 9/5, 12:00 PM ET Coastal Carolina +21Chives Ratio 0.34 5.2 win Coastal Carolina 24, West Virginia 31
2 East Carolina vs. AlabamaSat 9/5, 12:00 PM ET East Carolina +28Chives Ratio 0.22 4.9 loss East Carolina 10, Alabama 48
3 Wisconsin vs. Notre DameSun 9/6, 7:30 PM ET Notre Dame -20.5Chives Ratio 0.12 3.0 win Wisconsin 13, Notre Dame 41
4 Oregon State vs. HoustonSat 9/5, 12:00 PM ET Oregon State +20.5Chives Ratio 0.18 2.9 win Oregon State 20, Houston 33
5 Oklahoma State vs. TulsaSat 9/5, 3:45 PM ET Tulsa +13.5Chives Ratio 0.28 2.9 win Oklahoma State 10, Tulsa 24
6 Miami vs. StanfordFri 9/4, 9:00 PM ET Stanford +24.5Chives Ratio 0.12 2.6 loss Miami 45, Stanford 6
7 SMU vs. Florida StateMon 9/7, 7:30 PM ET Florida State +3Chives Ratio 0.77 2.3 push SMU 27, Florida State 24
8 Western Michigan vs. MichiganSat 9/5, 7:30 PM ET Western Michigan +27.5Chives Ratio 0.09 2.1 win Western Michigan 12, Michigan 13
9 UCLA vs. CaliforniaSat 9/5, 10:30 PM ET California +2Chives Ratio 0.67 2.0 loss UCLA 45, California 24

Every game

All 42 games, ranked by dual edge
GameMarket (home)SP+FPI EdgeMarginRatioModel side
Coastal Carolina vs. West VirginiaSat 9/5, 12:00 PM ET West Virginia -21 -15.8 -14.7 5.2 15.2 0.34 Coastal Carolina Play
East Carolina vs. AlabamaSat 9/5, 12:00 PM ET Alabama -28 -22.3 -23.1 4.9 22.7 0.22 East Carolina Play
Wisconsin vs. Notre DameSun 9/6, 7:30 PM ET Notre Dame -20.5 -25.1 -23.5 3.0 24.3 0.12 Notre Dame Play
Oregon State vs. HoustonSat 9/5, 12:00 PM ET Houston -20.5 -15.4 -17.6 2.9 16.5 0.18 Oregon State Play
Oklahoma State vs. TulsaSat 9/5, 3:45 PM ET Tulsa +13.5 +10.6 +9.9 2.9 10.2 0.28 Tulsa Play
Miami vs. StanfordFri 9/4, 9:00 PM ET Stanford +24.5 +21.9 +20.6 2.6 21.2 0.12 Stanford Play
SMU vs. Florida StateMon 9/7, 7:30 PM ET Florida State +3 +0.6 +0.7 2.3 0.6 0.77 Florida State Play
Western Michigan vs. MichiganSat 9/5, 7:30 PM ET Michigan -27.5 -25.4 -22.3 2.1 23.8 0.09 Western Michigan Play
UCLA vs. CaliforniaSat 9/5, 10:30 PM ET California +2 +0.0 -2.8 2.0 1.4 0.67 California Play
Central Michigan vs. New MexicoSat 9/5, 10:00 PM ET New Mexico -10.5 -17.5 -11.7 1.2 14.6 0.08 New Mexico
San José State vs. Eastern MichiganFri 9/4, 6:30 PM ET Eastern Michigan -3 -2.0 +0.9 1.0 1.4 0.33 San José State
Louisville vs. Ole MissSun 9/6, 7:30 PM ET Ole Miss -6.8 -7.8 -8.9 1.0 8.4 0.12 Ole Miss
UTEP vs. OklahomaFri 9/4, 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma -41.5 -40.5 -36.8 1.0 38.7 0.03 UTEP
Washington State vs. WashingtonSun 9/6, 4:00 PM ET Washington -23.5 -22.5 -16.4 1.0 19.4 0.05 Washington State
Western Kentucky vs. NevadaSat 9/5, 10:30 PM ET Nevada +1 +2.0 +4.6 1.0 3.3 0.30 Western Kentucky
Marshall vs. Penn StateSat 9/5, 3:30 PM ET Penn State -24 -26.8 -24.9 0.9 25.8 0.03 Penn State
Liberty vs. James MadisonSat 9/5, 12:00 PM ET James Madison -6 -6.8 -8.1 0.8 7.4 0.11 James Madison
Miami (OH) vs. PittsburghSat 9/5, 12:30 PM ET Pittsburgh -16.5 -12.6 -16.0 0.5 14.3 0.03 Miami (OH)
Baylor vs. AuburnSat 9/5, 3:30 PM ET Auburn -7.5 -10.1 -7.9 0.4 9.0 0.04 Auburn
Boston College vs. CincinnatiSat 9/5, 3:30 PM ET Cincinnati -7.5 -7.9 -9.5 0.4 8.7 0.05 Cincinnati
Clemson vs. LSUSat 9/5, 7:30 PM ET LSU -10 -9.7 -9.0 0.3 9.3 0.03 Clemson
North Texas vs. IndianaSat 9/5, 12:00 PM ET Indiana -40 -39.8 -31.9 0.2 35.8 0.01 North Texas
Arkansas State vs. MemphisSat 9/5, 7:00 PM ET Memphis -11.5 -14.3 -11.6 0.1 12.9 0.01 Memphis
Florida International vs. South FloridaSat 9/5, 7:00 PM ET South Florida -14 -15.2 -14.1 0.1 14.7 0.01 South Florida
Fresno State vs. USCFri 9/4, 9:00 PM ET USC -21.5 -21.5 -18.5 0.0 20.0 0.00 Fresno State
Florida Atlantic vs. FloridaSat 9/5, 7:45 PM ET Florida -26.5 -23.7 -27.3 0.0 25.5 0.00 Split
UL Monroe vs. Mississippi StateSat 9/5, 7:30 PM ET Mississippi State -28.5 -36.1 -25.8 0.0 30.9 0.00 Split
Kent State vs. South CarolinaSat 9/5, 12:45 PM ET South Carolina -36 -37.4 -32.0 0.0 34.7 0.00 Split
Texas State vs. TexasSat 9/5, 3:30 PM ET Texas -29.5 -27.3 -33.6 0.0 30.5 0.00 Split
Missouri State vs. Texas A&MSat 9/5, 7:00 PM ET Texas A&M -40.5 -42.4 -32.7 0.0 37.5 0.00 Split
Colorado vs. Georgia TechThu 9/3, 8:00 PM ET Georgia Tech -6.5 -7.6 -2.1 0.0 4.8 0.00 Split
Akron vs. Wake ForestThu 9/3, 7:00 PM ET Wake Forest -24.5 -28.7 -22.7 0.0 25.7 0.00 Split
Tulane vs. DukeSat 9/5, 3:30 PM ET Duke -7.5 -12.3 -3.6 0.0 7.9 0.00 Split
UAB vs. IllinoisThu 9/3, 9:00 PM ET Illinois -27.5 -30.3 -24.2 0.0 27.2 0.00 Split
Northern Illinois vs. IowaSat 9/5, 4:15 PM ET Iowa -31.5 -34.2 -27.5 0.0 30.8 0.00 Split
Toledo vs. Michigan StateFri 9/4, 8:00 PM ET Michigan State -10 -13.7 -5.7 0.0 9.7 0.00 Split
Ohio vs. NebraskaSat 9/5, 12:00 PM ET Nebraska -23.5 -23.5 -19.2 0.0 21.4 0.00 Split
Ball State vs. Ohio StateSat 9/5, 12:30 PM ET Ohio State -50.5 -60.2 -48.4 0.0 54.3 0.00 Split
Boise State vs. OregonSat 9/5, 3:30 PM ET Oregon -24.5 -26.5 -23.7 0.0 25.1 0.00 Split
Wyoming vs. Colorado StateSat 9/5, 6:00 PM ET Colorado State -3 -1.6 -3.1 0.0 2.4 0.00 Split
UNLV vs. Hawai'iSat 9/5, 10:00 PM ET Hawai'i +3 +3.8 +1.2 0.0 2.5 0.00 Split
Sam Houston vs. TroySat 9/5, 7:00 PM ET Troy -16.5 -20.4 -13.4 0.0 16.9 0.00 Split

Spreads are from the home team's side (negative = home favored). SP+ and FPI columns are each model's projected home spread. Edge is the dual edge in points; Ratio is the Chives Ratio (edge over projected margin). "Split" means the models disagree.