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College Football Betting Intelligence
Week 2 · Data report

Week 2 College Football Model: Every Game Through SP+ and FPI

All 47 Week 2 games ranked by the edge two independent models find against the market, with this week's 21 plays and a free Excel download.

CFB Alpha /September 9, 2026 /Lines as of Wed Sep 9, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET
Download the full board (Excel) Free. All 47 games with live formulas, this week's plays, team stats, and the season record.
This week's plays 21 of 47 games
This week 12-9 +1.92u
Season 60-48-3 +6.60u
Season ROI +6.1% Full record

A play is every game where SP+ and FPI agree on a side with a dual edge of 1.5+ points, taken at the consensus spread as of publication (a quarter point rounds against the play), -110, 1 unit. How it works

Week 2: the plays, ranked by dual-model edge Dual edge = the smaller of the SP+ and FPI edges against the market, when both models agree on a side. Every game at the floor or above is a play. Navy -4.5 Navy vs. Florida Atlantic 7.8 pts PLAY Buffalo +10.5 Buffalo vs. Florida International 7.6 pts PLAY Charlotte +47.5 Charlotte vs. Ole Miss 5.8 pts PLAY Syracuse -3.5 California vs. Syracuse 5.0 pts PLAY Middle Tennessee +13.5 Middle Tennessee vs. Marshall 4.7 pts PLAY Sacramento State +18.5 Sacramento State vs. Fresno State 4.6 pts PLAY Louisiana +30.5 Louisiana vs. USC 3.9 pts PLAY Georgia Southern +20.5 Georgia Southern vs. Clemson 3.7 pts PLAY San Diego State +12 San Diego State vs. UCLA 3.5 pts PLAY UTSA +1.5 UTSA vs. Texas State 3.2 pts PLAY Oregon State +26.5 Texas Tech vs. Oregon State 3.2 pts PLAY UNLV -3.5 UNLV vs. North Texas 3.1 pts PLAY Rice +44.5 Rice vs. Notre Dame 3.0 pts PLAY Louisiana Tech +35.5 Louisiana Tech vs. LSU 3.0 pts PLAY Duke +6 Duke vs. Illinois 2.6 pts PLAY UAB -10 UL Monroe vs. UAB 2.2 pts PLAY Kansas +5.5 Missouri vs. Kansas 1.7 pts PLAY Temple +24 Penn State vs. Temple 1.7 pts PLAY Texas A&M -14.5 Arizona State vs. Texas A&M 1.6 pts PLAY Michigan State -17.5 Eastern Michigan vs. Michigan State 1.5 pts PLAY Hawai'i -7 New Mexico State vs. Hawai'i 1.5 pts PLAY Play: the side both models favor Odds API + CollegeFootballData SP+/FPI Click to enlarge

The plays

21 of the 29 games where both models agree on a side clear the 1.5-point edge floor this week, biggest edge first. The record takes the models' side.

#GamePlayEdgeResult
1 Navy vs. Florida AtlanticSat 9/12, 7:30 PM ET Navy -4.5Chives Ratio 0.61 7.8 loss Navy 30, Florida Atlantic 38
2 Buffalo vs. Florida InternationalSat 9/12, 6:00 PM ET Buffalo +10.5Chives Ratio 2.53 7.6 loss Buffalo 20, Florida International 33
3 Charlotte vs. Ole MissSat 9/12, 7:45 PM ET Charlotte +47.5Chives Ratio 0.15 5.8 win Charlotte 9, Ole Miss 41
4 California vs. SyracuseSat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET Syracuse -3.5Chives Ratio 0.57 5.0 loss California 21, Syracuse 18
5 Middle Tennessee vs. MarshallSat 9/12, 7:00 PM ET Middle Tennessee +13.5Chives Ratio 0.72 4.7 win Middle Tennessee 26, Marshall 28
6 Sacramento State vs. Fresno StateSat 9/12, 10:30 PM ET Sacramento State +18.5Chives Ratio 0.33 4.6 loss Sacramento State 3, Fresno State 49
7 Louisiana vs. USCSat 9/12, 11:00 PM ET Louisiana +30.5Chives Ratio 0.15 3.9 win Louisiana 30, USC 49
8 Georgia Southern vs. ClemsonSat 9/12, 7:30 PM ET Georgia Southern +20.5Chives Ratio 0.25 3.7 win Georgia Southern 7, Clemson 22
9 San Diego State vs. UCLASat 9/12, 7:15 PM ET San Diego State +12Chives Ratio 0.47 3.5 loss San Diego State 10, UCLA 28
10 UTSA vs. Texas StateSat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET UTSA +1.5Chives Ratio 0.64 3.2 win UTSA 31, Texas State 26
11 Texas Tech vs. Oregon StateSat 9/12, 7:30 PM ET Oregon State +26.5Chives Ratio 0.14 3.2 win Texas Tech 35, Oregon State 24
12 UNLV vs. North TexasSat 9/12, 3:45 PM ET UNLV -3.5Chives Ratio 0.31 3.1 loss UNLV 6, North Texas 44
13 Rice vs. Notre DameSat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET Rice +44.5Chives Ratio 0.07 3.0 loss Rice 0, Notre Dame 52
14 Louisiana Tech vs. LSUSat 9/12, 7:30 PM ET Louisiana Tech +35.5Chives Ratio 0.10 3.0 win Louisiana Tech 14, LSU 45
15 Duke vs. IllinoisSat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET Duke +6Chives Ratio 0.78 2.6 win Duke 31, Illinois 27
16 UL Monroe vs. UABSat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET UAB -10Chives Ratio 0.14 2.2 loss UL Monroe 20, UAB 26
17 Missouri vs. KansasFri 9/11, 8:00 PM ET Kansas +5.5Chives Ratio 0.50 1.7 loss Missouri 38, Kansas 21
18 Penn State vs. TempleSat 9/12, 12:00 PM ET Temple +24Chives Ratio 0.08 1.7 win Penn State 27, Temple 9
19 Arizona State vs. Texas A&MSat 9/12, 12:00 PM ET Texas A&M -14.5Chives Ratio 0.09 1.6 win Arizona State 20, Texas A&M 48
20 Eastern Michigan vs. Michigan StateSat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET Michigan State -17.5Chives Ratio 0.08 1.5 win Eastern Michigan 7, Michigan State 35
21 New Mexico State vs. Hawai'iSat 9/12, 11:59 PM ET Hawai'i -7Chives Ratio 0.16 1.5 win New Mexico State 19, Hawai'i 29

Every game

All 47 games, ranked by dual edge
GameMarket (home)SP+FPI EdgeMarginRatioModel side
Navy vs. Florida AtlanticSat 9/12, 7:30 PM ET Florida Atlantic +4.5 +13.4 +12.3 7.8 12.8 0.61 Navy Play
Buffalo vs. Florida InternationalSat 9/12, 6:00 PM ET Florida International -10.5 -0.5 -2.9 7.6 1.7 2.53 Buffalo Play
Charlotte vs. Ole MissSat 9/12, 7:45 PM ET Ole Miss -47.5 -41.7 -35.1 5.8 38.4 0.15 Charlotte Play
California vs. SyracuseSat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET Syracuse -3.5 -8.5 -8.9 5.0 8.7 0.57 Syracuse Play
Middle Tennessee vs. MarshallSat 9/12, 7:00 PM ET Marshall -13.5 -8.8 -4.3 4.7 6.6 0.72 Middle Tennessee Play
Sacramento State vs. Fresno StateSat 9/12, 10:30 PM ET Fresno State -18.5 -13.9 -13.8 4.6 13.9 0.33 Sacramento State Play
Louisiana vs. USCSat 9/12, 11:00 PM ET USC -30.5 -25.8 -26.6 3.9 26.2 0.15 Louisiana Play
Georgia Southern vs. ClemsonSat 9/12, 7:30 PM ET Clemson -20.5 -13.4 -16.8 3.7 15.1 0.25 Georgia Southern Play
San Diego State vs. UCLASat 9/12, 7:15 PM ET UCLA -12 -8.5 -6.3 3.5 7.4 0.47 San Diego State Play
UTSA vs. Texas StateSat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET Texas State -1.5 +8.3 +1.7 3.2 5.0 0.64 UTSA Play
Texas Tech vs. Oregon StateSat 9/12, 7:30 PM ET Oregon State +26.5 +23.3 +23.2 3.2 23.2 0.14 Oregon State Play
UNLV vs. North TexasSat 9/12, 3:45 PM ET North Texas +3.5 +13.1 +6.6 3.1 9.8 0.31 UNLV Play
Rice vs. Notre DameSat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET Notre Dame -44.5 -39.6 -41.5 3.0 40.5 0.07 Rice Play
Louisiana Tech vs. LSUSat 9/12, 7:30 PM ET LSU -35.5 -29.5 -32.5 3.0 31.0 0.10 Louisiana Tech Play
Duke vs. IllinoisSat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET Illinois -6 -3.3 -3.4 2.6 3.4 0.78 Duke Play
UL Monroe vs. UABSat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET UAB -10 -19.6 -12.2 2.2 15.9 0.14 UAB Play
Missouri vs. KansasFri 9/11, 8:00 PM ET Kansas +5.5 +3.0 +3.8 1.7 3.4 0.50 Kansas Play
Penn State vs. TempleSat 9/12, 12:00 PM ET Temple +24 +22.3 +22.1 1.7 22.2 0.08 Temple Play
Arizona State vs. Texas A&MSat 9/12, 12:00 PM ET Texas A&M -14.5 -17.6 -16.1 1.6 16.8 0.09 Texas A&M Play
Eastern Michigan vs. Michigan StateSat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET Michigan State -17.5 -19.0 -19.2 1.5 19.1 0.08 Michigan State Play
New Mexico State vs. Hawai'iSat 9/12, 11:59 PM ET Hawai'i -7 -10.4 -8.5 1.5 9.4 0.16 Hawai'i Play
Utah State vs. WashingtonSat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET Washington -26.5 -25.9 -22.3 0.6 24.1 0.02 Utah State
Oregon vs. Oklahoma StateSat 9/12, 12:00 PM ET Oklahoma State +22.5 +20.4 +21.9 0.6 21.1 0.03 Oklahoma State
Georgia State vs. Kennesaw StateSat 9/12, 7:00 PM ET Kennesaw State -9 -17.7 -9.5 0.5 13.6 0.04 Kennesaw State
Arkansas vs. UtahSat 9/12, 10:15 PM ET Utah -12.5 -12.1 -11.3 0.4 11.7 0.03 Arkansas
Memphis vs. Boise StateSat 9/12, 6:00 PM ET Boise State -8.5 -5.5 -8.1 0.4 6.8 0.06 Memphis
Washington State vs. Kansas StateSat 9/12, 12:00 PM ET Kansas State -19 -18.8 -15.5 0.2 17.1 0.01 Washington State
Iowa State vs. IowaSat 9/12, 7:30 PM ET Iowa -14 -17.3 -14.2 0.2 15.8 0.01 Iowa
Jacksonville State vs. OhioSat 9/12, 6:00 PM ET Ohio -2.5 +7.0 -2.5 0.0 4.7 0.00 Jacksonville State
Western Kentucky vs. GeorgiaSat 9/12, 12:45 PM ET Georgia -41 -44.2 -38.9 0.0 41.5 0.00 Split
Alabama vs. KentuckySat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET Kentucky +10.5 +9.1 +13.6 0.0 11.3 0.00 Split
Mississippi State vs. MinnesotaSat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET Minnesota +1 -2.6 +3.9 0.0 3.2 0.00 Split
Oklahoma vs. MichiganSat 9/12, 12:00 PM ET Michigan +5.5 +7.1 +5.0 0.0 6.0 0.00 Split
Tennessee vs. Georgia TechSat 9/12, 7:00 PM ET Georgia Tech +12.5 +15.8 +9.4 0.0 12.6 0.00 Split
Ohio State vs. TexasSat 9/12, 7:30 PM ET Texas -1.5 +2.2 -2.7 0.0 2.5 0.00 Split
Delaware vs. VanderbiltSat 9/12, 4:15 PM ET Vanderbilt -20.5 -22.1 -14.8 0.0 18.4 0.00 Split
UCF vs. PittsburghSat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET Pittsburgh -7 -6.6 -9.1 0.0 7.8 0.00 Split
Arizona vs. BYUSat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET BYU -7.5 -6.6 -9.6 0.0 8.1 0.00 Split
Rutgers vs. Boston CollegeFri 9/11, 7:30 PM ET Boston College -3 +1.4 -4.7 0.0 3.1 0.00 Split
Old Dominion vs. Virginia TechSat 9/12, 12:00 PM ET Virginia Tech -19.5 -21.0 -17.8 0.0 19.4 0.00 Split
Wake Forest vs. PurdueSat 9/12, 12:00 PM ET Purdue +3 -2.0 +3.0 0.0 2.5 0.00 Split
Bowling Green vs. NebraskaSat 9/12, 7:00 PM ET Nebraska -28.5 -27.3 -28.5 0.0 27.9 0.00 Split
Maryland vs. UConnSat 9/12, 3:30 PM ET UConn +12.5 +13.0 +8.0 0.0 10.5 0.00 Split
South Florida vs. ArmySat 9/12, 12:00 PM ET Army -3.5 -7.7 -2.8 0.0 5.2 0.00 Split
Tulsa vs. Sam HoustonSat 9/12, 7:00 PM ET Sam Houston +14 +16.8 +10.8 0.0 13.8 0.00 Split
North Dakota State vs. Air ForceSat 9/12, 10:00 PM ET Air Force +2.5 -0.9 +3.6 0.0 2.2 0.00 Split
South Alabama vs. TulaneSat 9/12, 7:00 PM ET Tulane -9.5 -6.4 -11.5 0.0 8.9 0.00 Split

Spreads are from the home team's side (negative = home favored). SP+ and FPI columns are each model's projected home spread. Edge is the dual edge in points; Ratio is the Chives Ratio (edge over projected margin). "Split" means the models disagree.

Previous week: Week 1 data report