Week 3 · Data report
Week 3 College Football Model: Every Game Through SP+ and FPI
All 55 Week 3 games ranked by the edge two independent models find against the market, with this week's 20 plays and a free Excel download.
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week's plays, team stats, and the season record.
This week's plays
20
of 55 games
This week
11-9
+1.01u
Season
60-48-3
+6.60u
A play is every game where SP+ and FPI agree on a side with a dual edge of 1.5+ points, taken at the consensus spread as of publication (a quarter point rounds against the play), -110, 1 unit. How it works
The plays
20 of the 42 games where both models agree on a side clear the 1.5-point edge floor this week, biggest edge first. The record takes the models' side.
| # | Game | Play | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo vs. Penn StateSat 9/19, 12:00 PM ET | Buffalo +40.5Chives Ratio 0.20 | 6.7 | loss Buffalo 13, Penn State 55 |
| 2 | New Mexico vs. OklahomaSat 9/19, 7:30 PM ET | New Mexico +22.5Chives Ratio 0.29 | 5.0 | win New Mexico 6, Oklahoma 14 |
| 3 | Northern Illinois vs. ArizonaSat 9/19, 10:30 PM ET | Northern Illinois +34.5Chives Ratio 0.18 | 4.9 | win Northern Illinois 17, Arizona 42 |
| 4 | Nevada vs. Middle TennesseeSat 9/19, 7:00 PM ET | Nevada -3.5Chives Ratio 0.46 | 4.4 | loss Nevada 20, Middle Tennessee 27 |
| 5 | North Dakota State vs. Sacramento StateSat 9/19, 10:30 PM ET | Sacramento State +27.5Chives Ratio 0.17 | 4.0 | win North Dakota State 31, Sacramento State 10 |
| 6 | UAB vs. LouisianaSat 9/19, 8:00 PM ET | Louisiana -7.5Chives Ratio 0.31 | 3.8 | loss UAB 14, Louisiana 21 |
| 7 | Utah State vs. UtahSat 9/19, 3:30 PM ET | Utah State +28Chives Ratio 0.15 | 3.7 | loss Utah State 0, Utah 33 |
| 8 | Stanford vs. DukeSat 9/19, 4:00 PM ET | Duke -9.5Chives Ratio 0.27 | 3.7 | win Stanford 7, Duke 35 |
| 9 | Kentucky vs. Texas A&MSat 9/19, 3:30 PM ET | Texas A&M -17Chives Ratio 0.16 | 3.4 | loss Kentucky 31, Texas A&M 21 |
| 10 | Western Kentucky vs. IndianaSat 9/19, 4:00 PM ET | Western Kentucky +44.5Chives Ratio 0.07 | 2.9 | win Western Kentucky 0, Indiana 38 |
| 11 | Ohio vs. South AlabamaSat 9/19, 7:00 PM ET | Ohio +7Chives Ratio 0.62 | 2.6 | win Ohio 36, South Alabama 41 |
| 12 | Troy vs. MissouriSat 9/19, 7:00 PM ET | Troy +27Chives Ratio 0.10 | 2.4 | win Troy 17, Missouri 27 |
| 13 | Louisiana Tech vs. BaylorSat 9/19, 4:00 PM ET | Louisiana Tech +19.5Chives Ratio 0.14 | 2.3 | win Louisiana Tech 19, Baylor 36 |
| 14 | Kennesaw State vs. TennesseeSat 9/19, 7:45 PM ET | Kennesaw State +35.5Chives Ratio 0.07 | 2.2 | win Kennesaw State 9, Tennessee 42 |
| 15 | Miami (OH) vs. CincinnatiSat 9/19, 3:30 PM ET | Cincinnati -14.5Chives Ratio 0.11 | 2.1 | loss Miami (OH) 31, Cincinnati 35 |
| 16 | Houston vs. Texas TechFri 9/18, 8:00 PM ET | Texas Tech -7.5Chives Ratio 0.19 | 1.8 | loss Houston 26, Texas Tech 28 |
| 17 | LSU vs. Ole MissSat 9/19, 7:30 PM ET | LSU -3Chives Ratio 0.30 | 1.7 | loss LSU 24, Ole Miss 32 |
| 18 | Marshall vs. Missouri StateSat 9/19, 6:30 PM ET | Missouri State +4Chives Ratio 0.51 | 1.7 | loss Marshall 30, Missouri State 24 |
| 19 | Florida State vs. AlabamaSat 9/19, 3:30 PM ET | Florida State +19.5Chives Ratio 0.09 | 1.6 | win Florida State 36, Alabama 50 |
| 20 | Michigan State vs. Notre DameSat 9/19, 7:30 PM ET | Michigan State +29.5Chives Ratio 0.06 | 1.6 | win Michigan State 10, Notre Dame 27 |
Every game
All 55 games, ranked by dual edge
| Game | Market (home) | SP+ | FPI | Edge | Margin | Ratio | Model side | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo vs. Penn StateSat 9/19, 12:00 PM ET | Penn State -40.75 | -34.0 | -33.3 | 6.7 | 33.6 | 0.20 | Buffalo | Play |
| New Mexico vs. OklahomaSat 9/19, 7:30 PM ET | Oklahoma -22.5 | -16.6 | -17.5 | 5.0 | 17.0 | 0.29 | New Mexico | Play |
| Northern Illinois vs. ArizonaSat 9/19, 10:30 PM ET | Arizona -34.5 | -29.6 | -26.3 | 4.9 | 27.9 | 0.18 | Northern Illinois | Play |
| Nevada vs. Middle TennesseeSat 9/19, 7:00 PM ET | Middle Tennessee +3.5 | +11.3 | +7.9 | 4.4 | 9.6 | 0.46 | Nevada | Play |
| North Dakota State vs. Sacramento StateSat 9/19, 10:30 PM ET | Sacramento State +27.5 | +23.5 | +23.3 | 4.0 | 23.4 | 0.17 | Sacramento State | Play |
| UAB vs. LouisianaSat 9/19, 8:00 PM ET | Louisiana -7.5 | -13.1 | -11.3 | 3.8 | 12.2 | 0.31 | Louisiana | Play |
| Utah State vs. UtahSat 9/19, 3:30 PM ET | Utah -28 | -24.3 | -24.3 | 3.7 | 24.3 | 0.15 | Utah State | Play |
| Stanford vs. DukeSat 9/19, 4:00 PM ET | Duke -9.5 | -13.2 | -13.9 | 3.7 | 13.6 | 0.27 | Duke | Play |
| Kentucky vs. Texas A&MSat 9/19, 3:30 PM ET | Texas A&M -17 | -20.4 | -21.3 | 3.4 | 20.9 | 0.16 | Texas A&M | Play |
| Western Kentucky vs. IndianaSat 9/19, 4:00 PM ET | Indiana -44.5 | -41.1 | -41.6 | 2.9 | 41.4 | 0.07 | Western Kentucky | Play |
| Ohio vs. South AlabamaSat 9/19, 7:00 PM ET | South Alabama -7 | -4.4 | -4.0 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 0.62 | Ohio | Play |
| Troy vs. MissouriSat 9/19, 7:00 PM ET | Missouri -27 | -24.6 | -23.5 | 2.4 | 24.0 | 0.10 | Troy | Play |
| Louisiana Tech vs. BaylorSat 9/19, 4:00 PM ET | Baylor -19.5 | -15.1 | -17.2 | 2.3 | 16.1 | 0.14 | Louisiana Tech | Play |
| Kennesaw State vs. TennesseeSat 9/19, 7:45 PM ET | Tennessee -35.5 | -33.3 | -31.0 | 2.2 | 32.1 | 0.07 | Kennesaw State | Play |
| Miami (OH) vs. CincinnatiSat 9/19, 3:30 PM ET | Cincinnati -14.5 | -16.6 | -21.7 | 2.1 | 19.1 | 0.11 | Cincinnati | Play |
| Houston vs. Texas TechFri 9/18, 8:00 PM ET | Texas Tech -7.5 | -9.9 | -9.3 | 1.8 | 9.6 | 0.19 | Texas Tech | Play |
| LSU vs. Ole MissSat 9/19, 7:30 PM ET | Ole Miss +3 | +6.5 | +4.7 | 1.7 | 5.6 | 0.30 | LSU | Play |
| Marshall vs. Missouri StateSat 9/19, 6:30 PM ET | Missouri State +4 | +2.3 | -4.4 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 0.51 | Missouri State | Play |
| Florida State vs. AlabamaSat 9/19, 3:30 PM ET | Alabama -19.5 | -15.9 | -17.9 | 1.6 | 16.9 | 0.09 | Florida State | Play |
| Michigan State vs. Notre DameSat 9/19, 7:30 PM ET | Notre Dame -29.5 | -27.9 | -26.9 | 1.6 | 27.4 | 0.06 | Michigan State | Play |
| Mississippi State vs. South CarolinaSat 9/19, 4:15 PM ET | South Carolina -3.5 | -9.3 | -4.9 | 1.4 | 7.1 | 0.20 | South Carolina | |
| Virginia vs. West VirginiaSat 9/19, 7:30 PM ET | West Virginia +10.5 | +7.3 | +9.1 | 1.4 | 8.2 | 0.17 | West Virginia | |
| Purdue vs. UCLASat 9/19, 11:00 PM ET | UCLA -14 | -12.7 | -9.8 | 1.3 | 11.2 | 0.12 | Purdue | |
| James Madison vs. San Diego StateSat 9/19, 10:00 PM ET | San Diego State -2.5 | +2.1 | -1.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.43 | James Madison | |
| Fresno State vs. San José StateSat 9/19, 11:00 PM ET | San José State +6.5 | +9.3 | +7.7 | 1.2 | 8.5 | 0.14 | Fresno State | |
| Miami vs. Wake ForestFri 9/18, 7:30 PM ET | Wake Forest +21 | +19.8 | +19.2 | 1.2 | 19.5 | 0.06 | Wake Forest | |
| Eastern Michigan vs. WisconsinSat 9/19, 12:30 PM ET | Wisconsin -24 | -19.9 | -22.9 | 1.1 | 21.4 | 0.05 | Eastern Michigan | |
| Florida International vs. Florida AtlanticSat 9/19, 6:00 PM ET | Florida Atlantic -7 | -5.9 | -0.9 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 0.32 | Florida International | |
| Georgia Southern vs. Jacksonville StateSat 9/19, 7:00 PM ET | Jacksonville State -3 | -2.0 | -1.2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.33 | Georgia Southern | |
| NC State vs. VanderbiltSat 9/19, 12:45 PM ET | Vanderbilt -3.5 | -4.5 | -6.8 | 1.0 | 5.7 | 0.18 | Vanderbilt | |
| UTEP vs. MichiganSat 9/19, 3:30 PM ET | Michigan -35 | -32.4 | -34.0 | 1.0 | 33.2 | 0.03 | UTEP | |
| Western Michigan vs. RiceSat 9/19, 7:00 PM ET | Rice +9.5 | +10.5 | +13.0 | 1.0 | 11.7 | 0.09 | Western Michigan | |
| Georgia vs. ArkansasSat 9/19, 12:00 PM ET | Arkansas +24.5 | +25.4 | +25.9 | 0.9 | 25.7 | 0.04 | Georgia | |
| East Carolina vs. Old DominionSat 9/19, 6:00 PM ET | Old Dominion -3 | -2.2 | +0.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.27 | East Carolina | |
| Virginia Tech vs. MarylandSat 9/19, 7:30 PM ET | Maryland +3 | +1.6 | +2.4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 0.20 | Maryland | |
| USC vs. RutgersSat 9/19, 3:30 PM ET | Rutgers +24 | +19.9 | +23.4 | 0.6 | 21.7 | 0.03 | Rutgers | |
| BYU vs. Colorado StateSat 9/19, 7:30 PM ET | Colorado State +18 | +21.1 | +18.4 | 0.4 | 19.8 | 0.02 | BYU | |
| Wyoming vs. Central MichiganSat 9/19, 1:00 PM ET | Central Michigan -1.5 | +0.8 | -1.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.13 | Wyoming | |
| Kent State vs. Ohio StateSat 9/19, 12:00 PM ET | Ohio State -52.75 | -53.1 | -54.0 | 0.3 | 53.5 | 0.01 | Ohio State | |
| SMU vs. LouisvilleSat 9/19, 3:30 PM ET | Louisville -1.5 | -1.2 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.10 | SMU | |
| Syracuse vs. PittsburghThu 9/17, 7:30 PM ET | Pittsburgh -10.5 | -10.7 | -12.8 | 0.2 | 11.8 | 0.02 | Pittsburgh | |
| Bowling Green vs. Iowa StateSat 9/19, 12:00 PM ET | Iowa State -23.5 | -23.4 | -22.4 | 0.1 | 22.9 | 0.00 | Bowling Green | |
| Florida vs. AuburnSat 9/19, 7:00 PM ET | Auburn +2.5 | +5.3 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 0.00 | Split | |
| UTSA vs. TexasSat 9/19, 8:00 PM ET | Texas -30 | -25.3 | -36.2 | 0.0 | 30.8 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Tulane vs. Kansas StateSat 9/19, 12:00 PM ET | Kansas State -20.5 | -22.3 | -14.1 | 0.0 | 18.2 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Colorado vs. NorthwesternSat 9/19, 7:30 PM ET | Northwestern -3.5 | -6.5 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Arkansas State vs. TCUSat 9/19, 8:00 PM ET | TCU -20 | -20.8 | -17.6 | 0.0 | 19.2 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Georgia State vs. UCFSat 9/19, 7:00 PM ET | UCF -18.5 | -29.6 | -16.2 | 0.0 | 22.9 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Kansas vs. Arizona StateSat 9/19, 12:00 PM ET | Arizona State -5.5 | -5.5 | -6.4 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 0.00 | Split | |
| North Carolina vs. ClemsonSat 9/19, 12:00 PM ET | Clemson -3.5 | -4.1 | -1.4 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Akron vs. MinnesotaSat 9/19, 12:00 PM ET | Minnesota -23.5 | -25.7 | -16.9 | 0.0 | 21.3 | 0.00 | Split | |
| North Texas vs. Texas StateSat 9/19, 12:00 PM ET | Texas State -3 | -4.0 | +6.6 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Temple vs. ToledoSat 9/19, 3:00 PM ET | Toledo -6 | -3.7 | -6.8 | 0.0 | 5.2 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Ball State vs. LibertySat 9/19, 4:00 PM ET | Liberty -14.5 | -16.6 | -10.9 | 0.0 | 13.8 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Coastal Carolina vs. DelawareSat 9/19, 11:30 AM ET | Delaware -5 | -3.1 | -8.3 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 0.00 | Split |
Spreads are from the home team's side (negative = home favored). SP+ and FPI columns are each model's projected home spread. Edge is the dual edge in points; Ratio is the Chives Ratio (edge over projected margin). "Split" means the models disagree.
Previous week: Week 2 data report
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