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College Football Betting Intelligence
Week 4 · Data report

Week 4 College Football Model: Every Game Through SP+ and FPI

All 55 Week 4 games ranked by the edge two independent models find against the market, with this week's 22 plays and a free Excel download.

CFB Alpha /September 23, 2026 /Lines as of Wed Sep 23, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET
Download the full board (Excel) Free. All 55 games with live formulas, this week's plays, team stats, and the season record.
This week's plays 22 of 55 games
This week 11-11 -0.99u
Season 60-48-3 +6.60u
Season ROI +6.1% Full record

A play is every game where SP+ and FPI agree on a side with a dual edge of 1.5+ points, taken at the consensus spread as of publication (a quarter point rounds against the play), -110, 1 unit. How it works

Week 4: the plays, ranked by dual-model edge Dual edge = the smaller of the SP+ and FPI edges against the market, when both models agree on a side. Every game at the floor or above is a play. Colorado State +13.5 Colorado State vs. UTSA 5.9 pts PLAY Penn State -10 Wisconsin vs. Penn State 5.8 pts PLAY Georgia Tech -3.5 Georgia Tech vs. Stanford 4.1 pts PLAY South Florida -17.5 South Florida vs. Bowling Green 4.0 pts PLAY Clemson +0 Clemson vs. California 3.9 pts PLAY Texas A&M +8.5 Texas A&M vs. LSU 3.8 pts PLAY Tulsa +7 Tulsa vs. Arkansas 3.7 pts PLAY New Mexico -11.5 New Mexico vs. New Mexico State 3.6 pts PLAY Troy +3 Troy vs. Utah State 3.4 pts PLAY Oregon State -10.5 Oregon State vs. UTEP 3.2 pts PLAY Missouri State +34.5 Missouri State vs. SMU 2.7 pts PLAY Cincinnati +6.5 Kansas State vs. Cincinnati 2.5 pts PLAY Illinois +27 Illinois vs. Ohio State 2.5 pts PLAY Hawai'i -3 Hawai'i vs. Wyoming 2.5 pts PLAY Georgia Southern +18.5 Houston vs. Georgia Southern 2.3 pts PLAY James Madison -6 James Madison vs. Old Dominion 2.2 pts PLAY Nebraska -5.5 Nebraska vs. Michigan State 2.1 pts PLAY Maryland +1.5 UCLA vs. Maryland 2.0 pts PLAY Fresno State -13.5 Rice vs. Fresno State 1.9 pts PLAY UConn +3.5 UConn vs. Miami (OH) 1.9 pts PLAY USC +3 Oregon vs. USC 1.6 pts PLAY Purdue +28 Notre Dame vs. Purdue 1.6 pts PLAY Play: the side both models favor Odds API + CollegeFootballData SP+/FPI Click to enlarge

The plays

22 of the 37 games where both models agree on a side clear the 1.5-point edge floor this week, biggest edge first. The record takes the models' side.

#GamePlayEdgeResult
1 Colorado State vs. UTSASat 9/26, 12:00 PM ET Colorado State +13.5Chives Ratio 0.82 5.9 loss Colorado State 45, UTSA 59
2 Wisconsin vs. Penn StateSat 9/26, 5:00 PM ET Penn State -10Chives Ratio 0.36 5.8 loss Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20
3 Georgia Tech vs. StanfordSat 9/26, 10:30 PM ET Georgia Tech -3.5Chives Ratio 0.48 4.1 loss Georgia Tech 27, Stanford 34
4 South Florida vs. Bowling GreenSat 9/26, 5:00 PM ET South Florida -17.5Chives Ratio 0.19 4.0 loss South Florida 14, Bowling Green 6
5 Clemson vs. CaliforniaFri 9/25, 10:30 PM ET Clemson +0Chives Ratio 0.86 3.9 win Clemson 24, California 10
6 Texas A&M vs. LSUSat 9/26, 7:30 PM ET Texas A&M +8.5Chives Ratio 0.84 3.8 loss Texas A&M 6, LSU 35
7 Tulsa vs. ArkansasSat 9/26, 8:00 PM ET Tulsa +7Chives Ratio 1.23 3.7 loss Tulsa 6, Arkansas 34
8 New Mexico vs. New Mexico StateSat 9/26, 3:30 PM ET New Mexico -11.5Chives Ratio 0.22 3.6 win New Mexico 42, New Mexico State 18
9 Troy vs. Utah StateSat 9/26, 7:30 PM ET Troy +3Chives Ratio 1.13 3.4 loss Troy 10, Utah State 21
10 Oregon State vs. UTEPSat 9/26, 9:00 PM ET Oregon State -10.5Chives Ratio 0.22 3.2 win Oregon State 33, UTEP 7
11 Missouri State vs. SMUSat 9/26, 9:00 PM ET Missouri State +34.5Chives Ratio 0.09 2.7 win Missouri State 24, SMU 34
12 Kansas State vs. CincinnatiSat 9/26, 7:00 PM ET Cincinnati +6.5Chives Ratio 0.71 2.5 win Kansas State 26, Cincinnati 31
13 Illinois vs. Ohio StateSat 9/26, 12:00 PM ET Illinois +27Chives Ratio 0.11 2.5 win Illinois 19, Ohio State 42
14 Hawai'i vs. WyomingSat 9/26, 3:00 PM ET Hawai'i -3Chives Ratio 0.35 2.5 loss Hawai'i 10, Wyoming 27
15 Houston vs. Georgia SouthernSat 9/26, 4:00 PM ET Georgia Southern +18.5Chives Ratio 0.14 2.3 win Houston 42, Georgia Southern 28
16 James Madison vs. Old DominionSat 9/26, 6:00 PM ET James Madison -6Chives Ratio 0.23 2.2 win James Madison 46, Old Dominion 20
17 Nebraska vs. Michigan StateSat 9/26, 5:00 PM ET Nebraska -5.5Chives Ratio 0.24 2.1 win Nebraska 31, Michigan State 13
18 UCLA vs. MarylandSat 9/26, 1:30 PM ET Maryland +1.5Chives Ratio 0.67 2.0 loss UCLA 54, Maryland 3
19 Rice vs. Fresno StateSat 9/26, 10:00 PM ET Fresno State -13.5Chives Ratio 0.12 1.9 win Rice 24, Fresno State 38
20 UConn vs. Miami (OH)Sat 9/26, 3:30 PM ET UConn +3.5Chives Ratio 0.63 1.9 win UConn 21, Miami (OH) 24
21 Oregon vs. USCSat 9/26, 7:30 PM ET USC +3Chives Ratio 0.53 1.6 loss Oregon 41, USC 27
22 Notre Dame vs. PurdueSat 9/26, 2:00 PM ET Purdue +28Chives Ratio 0.06 1.6 loss Notre Dame 49, Purdue 10

Every game

All 55 games, ranked by dual edge
GameMarket (home)SP+FPI EdgeMarginRatioModel side
Colorado State vs. UTSASat 9/26, 12:00 PM ET UTSA -13.5 -7.6 -6.8 5.9 7.2 0.82 Colorado State Play
Wisconsin vs. Penn StateSat 9/26, 5:00 PM ET Penn State -10 -16.4 -15.8 5.8 16.1 0.36 Penn State Play
Georgia Tech vs. StanfordSat 9/26, 10:30 PM ET Stanford +3.5 +9.4 +7.6 4.1 8.5 0.48 Georgia Tech Play
South Florida vs. Bowling GreenSat 9/26, 5:00 PM ET Bowling Green +17.5 +21.5 +21.6 4.0 21.6 0.19 South Florida Play
Clemson vs. CaliforniaFri 9/25, 10:30 PM ET California +0 +3.9 +5.2 3.9 4.5 0.86 Clemson Play
Texas A&M vs. LSUSat 9/26, 7:30 PM ET LSU -8.5 -4.4 -4.7 3.8 4.5 0.84 Texas A&M Play
Tulsa vs. ArkansasSat 9/26, 8:00 PM ET Arkansas -7 -3.3 -1.8 3.7 2.5 1.23 Tulsa Play
New Mexico vs. New Mexico StateSat 9/26, 3:30 PM ET New Mexico State +11.5 +18.1 +15.1 3.6 16.6 0.22 New Mexico Play
Troy vs. Utah StateSat 9/26, 7:30 PM ET Utah State -3 +0.7 +0.4 3.4 0.6 1.13 Troy Play
Oregon State vs. UTEPSat 9/26, 9:00 PM ET UTEP +10.5 +14.8 +13.7 3.2 14.2 0.22 Oregon State Play
Missouri State vs. SMUSat 9/26, 9:00 PM ET SMU -34.5 -31.8 -28.0 2.7 29.9 0.09 Missouri State Play
Kansas State vs. CincinnatiSat 9/26, 7:00 PM ET Cincinnati +6.5 +4.0 +3.0 2.5 3.5 0.71 Cincinnati Play
Illinois vs. Ohio StateSat 9/26, 12:00 PM ET Ohio State -27 -21.0 -24.5 2.5 22.8 0.11 Illinois Play
Hawai'i vs. WyomingSat 9/26, 3:00 PM ET Wyoming +3 +5.5 +8.8 2.5 7.1 0.35 Hawai'i Play
Houston vs. Georgia SouthernSat 9/26, 4:00 PM ET Georgia Southern +18.5 +16.1 +16.2 2.3 16.2 0.14 Georgia Southern Play
James Madison vs. Old DominionSat 9/26, 6:00 PM ET Old Dominion +6 +10.8 +8.2 2.2 9.5 0.23 James Madison Play
Nebraska vs. Michigan StateSat 9/26, 5:00 PM ET Michigan State +5.5 +9.8 +7.6 2.1 8.7 0.24 Nebraska Play
UCLA vs. MarylandSat 9/26, 1:30 PM ET Maryland +1.5 -1.3 -0.5 2.0 0.9 0.67 Maryland Play
Rice vs. Fresno StateSat 9/26, 10:00 PM ET Fresno State -13.5 -16.9 -15.4 1.9 16.1 0.12 Fresno State Play
UConn vs. Miami (OH)Sat 9/26, 3:30 PM ET Miami (OH) -3.5 -1.6 +0.2 1.9 0.9 0.63 UConn Play
Oregon vs. USCSat 9/26, 7:30 PM ET USC +3 +0.4 +1.4 1.6 0.9 0.53 USC Play
Notre Dame vs. PurdueSat 9/26, 2:00 PM ET Purdue +28 +26.4 +26.0 1.6 26.2 0.06 Purdue Play
Ball State vs. Kent StateSat 9/26, 12:00 PM ET Kent State -3 -1.9 -0.8 1.1 1.4 0.37 Ball State
Air Force vs. NevadaSat 9/26, 10:30 PM ET Nevada +5.5 +4.4 +0.2 1.1 2.3 0.37 Nevada
Oklahoma vs. GeorgiaSat 9/26, 3:30 PM ET Georgia -14 -13.0 -12.8 1.0 12.9 0.08 Oklahoma
Virginia Tech vs. Boston CollegeSat 9/26, 12:00 PM ET Boston College +14 +14.9 +15.0 0.9 14.9 0.06 Virginia Tech
Utah vs. Iowa StateSat 9/26, 3:30 PM ET Iowa State +8 +8.8 +9.7 0.8 9.2 0.09 Utah
Minnesota vs. WashingtonSat 9/26, 11:00 PM ET Washington -10 -9.3 -7.3 0.7 8.3 0.08 Minnesota
Kennesaw State vs. Arkansas StateSat 9/26, 7:00 PM ET Arkansas State -6 -5.4 -3.2 0.6 4.3 0.14 Kennesaw State
Missouri vs. Mississippi StateSat 9/26, 7:45 PM ET Mississippi State -6.5 +0.6 -6.0 0.5 3.3 0.15 Missouri
Arizona vs. Washington StateSat 9/26, 7:30 PM ET Washington State +10 +13.0 +10.5 0.5 11.8 0.04 Arizona
Northwestern vs. IndianaFri 9/25, 8:00 PM ET Indiana -21 -20.5 -17.7 0.5 19.1 0.03 Northwestern
Colorado vs. BaylorSat 9/26, 12:00 PM ET Baylor -10 -10.4 -11.2 0.4 10.8 0.04 Baylor
Wake Forest vs. LouisvilleSat 9/26, 12:00 PM ET Louisville -12.5 -12.1 -11.7 0.4 11.9 0.03 Wake Forest
Vanderbilt vs. AuburnSat 9/26, 4:15 PM ET Auburn -9.5 -4.3 -9.2 0.3 6.8 0.04 Vanderbilt
Iowa vs. MichiganSat 9/26, 3:30 PM ET Michigan -5.5 -0.2 -5.2 0.3 2.7 0.10 Iowa
Navy vs. UABFri 9/25, 7:00 PM ET UAB +7 +12.3 +7.2 0.2 9.8 0.02 Navy
South Carolina vs. AlabamaSat 9/26, 7:00 PM ET Alabama -12.5 -8.9 -12.8 0.0 10.9 0.00 Split
Ole Miss vs. FloridaSat 9/26, 3:30 PM ET Florida -3.5 -4.6 -1.1 0.0 2.9 0.00 Split
Texas vs. TennesseeSat 9/26, 12:00 PM ET Tennessee +5 +1.5 +7.2 0.0 4.4 0.00 Split
Sam Houston vs. Texas TechSat 9/26, 12:00 PM ET Texas Tech -34.5 -37.2 -27.1 0.0 32.1 0.00 Split
TCU vs. UCFSat 9/26, 3:30 PM ET UCF +3 +3.3 -0.1 0.0 1.7 0.00 Split
Oklahoma State vs. West VirginiaSat 9/26, 7:00 PM ET West Virginia -1.5 +2.5 -2.7 0.0 2.6 0.00 Split
Central Michigan vs. MiamiSat 9/26, 6:30 PM ET Miami -41.25 -40.5 -42.5 0.0 41.5 0.00 Split
Delaware vs. VirginiaSat 9/26, 6:00 PM ET Virginia -19.5 -21.0 -15.6 0.0 18.3 0.00 Split
San Diego State vs. ToledoSat 9/26, 12:00 PM ET Toledo -3 +0.5 -3.9 0.0 2.2 0.00 Split
Boise State vs. Western MichiganSat 9/26, 3:30 PM ET Western Michigan +7 +7.1 +5.7 0.0 6.4 0.00 Split
Army vs. TempleFri 9/25, 4:00 PM ET Temple +3 +4.3 -0.5 0.0 2.4 0.00 Split
Louisiana vs. CharlotteSat 9/26, 6:30 PM ET Charlotte +10 +14.5 +7.1 0.0 10.8 0.00 Split
Florida Atlantic vs. UL MonroeSat 9/26, 8:00 PM ET UL Monroe +13.5 +18.2 +9.8 0.0 14.0 0.00 Split
Northern Illinois vs. Georgia StateSat 9/26, 2:00 PM ET Georgia State -10.5 -2.5 -10.6 0.0 6.5 0.00 Split
UNLV vs. AkronSat 9/26, 12:00 PM ET Akron +13.5 +15.1 +9.6 0.0 12.3 0.00 Split
South Alabama vs. KentuckySat 9/26, 12:45 PM ET Kentucky -20.5 -21.0 -18.1 0.0 19.5 0.00 Split
Liberty vs. Coastal CarolinaThu 9/24, 7:30 PM ET Coastal Carolina +2.5 +4.8 +1.5 0.0 3.1 0.00 Split
Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville StateSat 9/26, 7:00 PM ET Jacksonville State -7 -18.1 -6.8 0.0 12.4 0.00 Split

Spreads are from the home team's side (negative = home favored). SP+ and FPI columns are each model's projected home spread. Edge is the dual edge in points; Ratio is the Chives Ratio (edge over projected margin). "Split" means the models disagree.

Previous week: Week 3 data report