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College Football Betting Intelligence
Week 5 · Data report

Week 5 College Football Model: Every Game Through SP+ and FPI

All 55 Week 5 games ranked by the edge two independent models find against the market, with this week's 18 plays and a free Excel download.

CFB Alpha /September 30, 2026 /Lines as of Wed Sep 30, 2026 at 7:01 AM ET
Download the full board (Excel) Free. All 55 games with live formulas, this week's plays, team stats, and the season record.
This week's plays 18 of 55 games
This week 10-7-1 +2.10u
Season 60-48-3 +6.60u
Season ROI +6.1% Full record

A play is every game where SP+ and FPI agree on a side with a dual edge of 1.5+ points, taken at the consensus spread as of publication (a quarter point rounds against the play), -110, 1 unit. How it works

Week 5: the plays, ranked by dual-model edge Dual edge = the smaller of the SP+ and FPI edges against the market, when both models agree on a side. Every game at the floor or above is a play. Fresno State +2.5 Fresno State vs. Washington State 6.5 pts PLAY Baylor +4 Baylor vs. Arizona State 6.3 pts PLAY Ohio -3 Ohio vs. Kent State 6.2 pts PLAY New Mexico -22.5 UTEP vs. New Mexico 5.0 pts PLAY UCF +12 UCF vs. Houston 4.6 pts PLAY Pittsburgh +3.5 Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech 3.5 pts PLAY Cincinnati +7 Cincinnati vs. Arizona 3.1 pts PLAY Miami (OH) -13 Bowling Green vs. Miami (OH) 3.1 pts PLAY James Madison -18.5 Marshall vs. James Madison 2.9 pts PLAY Louisiana -6.5 Arkansas State vs. Louisiana 2.4 pts PLAY Illinois -10 Purdue vs. Illinois 2.3 pts PLAY Toledo -19.5 Toledo vs. Ball State 2.3 pts PLAY Texas Tech -13 Texas Tech vs. Colorado 2.2 pts PLAY South Alabama -14 UL Monroe vs. South Alabama 2.0 pts PLAY Indiana -24 Indiana vs. Rutgers 1.7 pts PLAY Wake Forest -12.5 Stanford vs. Wake Forest 1.6 pts PLAY Western Kentucky +2.5 Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State 1.5 pts PLAY Hawai'i -3 San José State vs. Hawai'i 1.5 pts PLAY Play: the side both models favor Odds API + CollegeFootballData SP+/FPI Click to enlarge

The plays

18 of the 34 games where both models agree on a side clear the 1.5-point edge floor this week, biggest edge first. The record takes the models' side.

#GamePlayEdgeResult
1 Fresno State vs. Washington StateSat 10/3, 9:30 PM ET Fresno State +2.5Chives Ratio 1.23 6.5 win Fresno State 26, Washington State 6
2 Baylor vs. Arizona StateSat 10/3, 10:30 PM ET Baylor +4Chives Ratio 2.10 6.3 win Baylor 55, Arizona State 19
3 Ohio vs. Kent StateSat 10/3, 3:30 PM ET Ohio -3Chives Ratio 0.66 6.2 push Ohio 13, Kent State 10
4 UTEP vs. New MexicoSat 10/3, 4:00 PM ET New Mexico -22.5Chives Ratio 0.16 5.0 win UTEP 7, New Mexico 61
5 UCF vs. HoustonSat 10/3, 12:00 PM ET UCF +12Chives Ratio 0.70 4.6 win UCF 17, Houston 27
6 Pittsburgh vs. Virginia TechFri 10/2, 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +3.5Chives Ratio 1.17 3.5 win Pittsburgh 35, Virginia Tech 33
7 Cincinnati vs. ArizonaSat 10/3, 11:00 PM ET Cincinnati +7Chives Ratio 1.03 3.1 loss Cincinnati 7, Arizona 34
8 Bowling Green vs. Miami (OH)Sat 10/3, 3:30 PM ET Miami (OH) -13Chives Ratio 0.15 3.1 loss Bowling Green 24, Miami (OH) 20
9 Marshall vs. James MadisonSat 10/3, 3:45 PM ET James Madison -18.5Chives Ratio 0.13 2.9 win Marshall 17, James Madison 45
10 Arkansas State vs. LouisianaSat 10/3, 8:00 PM ET Louisiana -6.5Chives Ratio 0.26 2.4 loss Arkansas State 20, Louisiana 23
11 Purdue vs. IllinoisSat 10/3, 4:15 PM ET Illinois -10Chives Ratio 0.16 2.3 loss Purdue 24, Illinois 17
12 Toledo vs. Ball StateSat 10/3, 2:00 PM ET Toledo -19.5Chives Ratio 0.10 2.3 loss Toledo 39, Ball State 24
13 Texas Tech vs. ColoradoSat 10/3, 7:31 PM ET Texas Tech -13Chives Ratio 0.12 2.2 win Texas Tech 29, Colorado 7
14 UL Monroe vs. South AlabamaSat 10/3, 7:00 PM ET South Alabama -14Chives Ratio 0.12 2.0 win UL Monroe 35, South Alabama 52
15 Indiana vs. RutgersSat 10/3, 8:00 PM ET Indiana -24Chives Ratio 0.07 1.7 win Indiana 47, Rutgers 15
16 Stanford vs. Wake ForestSat 10/3, 12:00 PM ET Wake Forest -12.5Chives Ratio 0.11 1.6 win Stanford 3, Wake Forest 57
17 Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico StateThu 10/1, 8:00 PM ET Western Kentucky +2.5Chives Ratio 0.50 1.5 loss Western Kentucky 13, New Mexico State 34
18 San José State vs. Hawai'iSat 10/3, 11:59 PM ET Hawai'i -3Chives Ratio 0.31 1.5 loss San José State 20, Hawai'i 16

Every game

All 55 games, ranked by dual edge
GameMarket (home)SP+FPI EdgeMarginRatioModel side
Fresno State vs. Washington StateSat 10/3, 9:30 PM ET Washington State -2.5 +6.6 +4.0 6.5 5.3 1.23 Fresno State Play
Baylor vs. Arizona StateSat 10/3, 10:30 PM ET Arizona State -4 +2.7 +2.3 6.3 2.5 2.10 Baylor Play
Ohio vs. Kent StateSat 10/3, 3:30 PM ET Kent State +3 +9.5 +9.2 6.2 9.3 0.66 Ohio Play
UTEP vs. New MexicoSat 10/3, 4:00 PM ET New Mexico -22.5 -34.1 -27.5 5.0 30.8 0.16 New Mexico Play
UCF vs. HoustonSat 10/3, 12:00 PM ET Houston -12 -5.8 -7.4 4.6 6.6 0.70 UCF Play
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia TechFri 10/2, 7:00 PM ET Virginia Tech -3.5 +0.0 +2.2 3.5 1.1 1.17 Pittsburgh Play
Cincinnati vs. ArizonaSat 10/3, 11:00 PM ET Arizona -7 -3.9 -0.9 3.1 2.4 1.03 Cincinnati Play
Bowling Green vs. Miami (OH)Sat 10/3, 3:30 PM ET Miami (OH) -13 -24.5 -16.1 3.1 20.3 0.15 Miami (OH) Play
Marshall vs. James MadisonSat 10/3, 3:45 PM ET James Madison -18.5 -24.8 -21.4 2.9 23.1 0.13 James Madison Play
Arkansas State vs. LouisianaSat 10/3, 8:00 PM ET Louisiana -6.5 -8.9 -9.3 2.4 9.1 0.26 Louisiana Play
Purdue vs. IllinoisSat 10/3, 4:15 PM ET Illinois -10 -17.3 -12.3 2.3 14.8 0.16 Illinois Play
Toledo vs. Ball StateSat 10/3, 2:00 PM ET Ball State +19.5 +22.9 +21.8 2.3 22.4 0.10 Toledo Play
Texas Tech vs. ColoradoSat 10/3, 7:31 PM ET Colorado +13 +21.1 +15.2 2.2 18.2 0.12 Texas Tech Play
UL Monroe vs. South AlabamaSat 10/3, 7:00 PM ET South Alabama -14 -16.0 -18.2 2.0 17.1 0.12 South Alabama Play
Indiana vs. RutgersSat 10/3, 8:00 PM ET Rutgers +24 +26.1 +25.7 1.7 25.9 0.07 Indiana Play
Stanford vs. Wake ForestSat 10/3, 12:00 PM ET Wake Forest -12.5 -14.5 -14.1 1.6 14.3 0.11 Wake Forest Play
Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico StateThu 10/1, 8:00 PM ET New Mexico State -2.5 -1.0 +0.3 1.5 0.6 0.50 Western Kentucky Play
San José State vs. Hawai'iSat 10/3, 11:59 PM ET Hawai'i -3 -5.3 -4.5 1.5 4.9 0.31 Hawai'i Play
Ohio State vs. IowaSat 10/3, 3:30 PM ET Iowa +14 +11.6 +12.6 1.4 12.1 0.12 Iowa
Syracuse vs. UConnSat 10/3, 12:00 PM ET UConn +6.5 +0.1 +5.4 1.1 2.8 0.37 UConn
Boston College vs. SMUSat 10/3, 12:00 PM ET SMU -21 -20.0 -16.3 1.0 18.1 0.06 Boston College
Michigan State vs. WisconsinSat 10/3, 12:30 PM ET Wisconsin -10 -9.0 -6.2 1.0 7.6 0.13 Michigan State
Texas State vs. San Diego StateSat 10/3, 10:30 PM ET San Diego State +4.5 +3.6 +1.2 0.9 2.4 0.30 San Diego State
Maryland vs. NebraskaSat 10/3, 4:00 PM ET Nebraska -14.5 -15.4 -20.1 0.9 17.8 0.05 Nebraska
Louisville vs. NC StateSat 10/3, 3:30 PM ET NC State +3.5 +4.1 +5.7 0.6 4.9 0.12 Louisville
Auburn vs. TennesseeSat 10/3, 3:30 PM ET Tennessee -7 -8.7 -7.6 0.6 8.1 0.07 Tennessee
Vanderbilt vs. GeorgiaSat 10/3, 12:45 PM ET Georgia -24.5 -25.1 -25.2 0.6 25.1 0.02 Georgia
Georgia Southern vs. Coastal CarolinaSat 10/3, 7:00 PM ET Coastal Carolina +2.5 +0.4 +2.0 0.5 1.2 0.17 Coastal Carolina
Oregon State vs. Colorado StateSat 10/3, 6:00 PM ET Colorado State +6.5 +6.1 +4.1 0.4 5.1 0.08 Colorado State
West Virginia vs. Iowa StateSat 10/3, 12:00 PM ET Iowa State -3.5 -4.4 -3.9 0.4 4.2 0.10 Iowa State
Virginia vs. Florida StateSat 10/3, 3:30 PM ET Florida State +2.5 +6.3 +2.8 0.3 4.5 0.07 Virginia
BYU vs. TCUSat 10/3, 7:00 PM ET TCU +6.5 +5.7 +6.2 0.3 6.0 0.05 TCU
Western Michigan vs. BuffaloSat 10/3, 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +13.5 +7.6 +13.4 0.1 10.5 0.01 Buffalo
Army vs. Louisiana TechSat 10/3, 7:30 PM ET Louisiana Tech +2 +6.6 +2.0 0.0 4.3 0.00 Army
Penn State vs. NorthwesternFri 10/2, 8:00 PM ET Northwestern +2.5 +7.2 +2.0 0.0 4.6 0.00 Split
UTSA vs. RiceSat 10/3, 7:00 PM ET Rice +11.5 +11.7 +11.4 0.0 11.6 0.00 Split
Notre Dame vs. North CarolinaSat 10/3, 12:00 PM ET North Carolina +21 +22.7 +20.1 0.0 21.4 0.00 Split
Middle Tennessee vs. KansasSat 10/3, 12:00 PM ET Kansas -18.5 -19.4 -16.0 0.0 17.7 0.00 Split
North Texas vs. TulsaThu 10/1, 9:00 PM ET Tulsa -1 -4.7 +2.6 0.0 3.7 0.00 Split
Navy vs. Air ForceSat 10/3, 12:00 PM ET Air Force -3 -2.7 -4.2 0.0 3.4 0.00 Split
Kentucky vs. South CarolinaSat 10/3, 4:15 PM ET South Carolina -2.5 -1.9 -2.8 0.0 2.4 0.00 Split
Temple vs. South FloridaSat 10/3, 7:30 PM ET South Florida -6.5 -12.4 -6.1 0.0 9.2 0.00 Split
Alabama vs. Mississippi StateSat 10/3, 12:00 PM ET Mississippi State +6 +5.5 +7.9 0.0 6.7 0.00 Split
Florida vs. MissouriSat 10/3, 3:30 PM ET Missouri +5 +2.4 +7.2 0.0 4.8 0.00 Split
Miami vs. ClemsonSat 10/3, 7:30 PM ET Clemson +16.5 +18.4 +15.9 0.0 17.1 0.00 Split
Memphis vs. CharlotteSat 10/3, 3:30 PM ET Charlotte +20 +27.2 +16.2 0.0 21.7 0.00 Split
Michigan vs. MinnesotaSat 10/3, 12:00 PM ET Minnesota +5.5 +5.4 +9.1 0.0 7.2 0.00 Split
Utah State vs. Boise StateSat 10/3, 7:30 PM ET Boise State -20.5 -19.3 -20.5 0.0 19.9 0.00 Split
Liberty vs. DelawareFri 10/2, 7:00 PM ET Delaware +7 +10.8 +4.4 0.0 7.6 0.00 Split
Akron vs. Central MichiganSat 10/3, 3:30 PM ET Central Michigan -6.5 -6.8 -6.1 0.0 6.5 0.00 Split
Wyoming vs. North Dakota StateSat 10/3, 3:30 PM ET North Dakota State -18.5 -22.9 -18.1 0.0 20.5 0.00 Split
Old Dominion vs. Georgia StateSat 10/3, 3:30 PM ET Georgia State -2.5 +0.9 -5.0 0.0 2.9 0.00 Split
California vs. UNLVSat 10/3, 3:30 PM ET UNLV -2.5 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 2.4 0.00 Split
Washington vs. USCSat 10/3, 7:30 PM ET USC -9.5 -8.1 -12.8 0.0 10.5 0.00 Split
Arkansas vs. Texas A&MSat 10/3, 7:00 PM ET Texas A&M -14 -11.6 -15.3 0.0 13.4 0.00 Split

Spreads are from the home team's side (negative = home favored). SP+ and FPI columns are each model's projected home spread. Edge is the dual edge in points; Ratio is the Chives Ratio (edge over projected margin). "Split" means the models disagree.

Previous week: Week 4 data report