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College Football Betting Intelligence
Week 6 · Data report

Week 6 College Football Model: Every Game Through SP+ and FPI

All 55 Week 6 games ranked by the edge two independent models find against the market, with this week's 19 plays and a free Excel download.

CFB Alpha /October 7, 2026 /Lines as of Wed Oct 7, 2026 at 7:01 AM ET
Download the full board (Excel) Free. All 55 games with live formulas, this week's plays, team stats, and the season record.
This week's plays 19 of 55 games
This week 11-7-1 +3.01u
Season 60-48-3 +6.60u
Season ROI +6.1% Full record

A play is every game where SP+ and FPI agree on a side with a dual edge of 1.5+ points, taken at the consensus spread as of publication (a quarter point rounds against the play), -110, 1 unit. How it works

Week 6: the plays, ranked by dual-model edge Dual edge = the smaller of the SP+ and FPI edges against the market, when both models agree on a side. Every game at the floor or above is a play. UCF +10 UCF vs. Oklahoma State 6.1 pts PLAY Pittsburgh -3.5 North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh 5.3 pts PLAY Memphis -14 UAB vs. Memphis 5.0 pts PLAY Western Michigan -13.5 Kent State vs. Western Michigan 4.1 pts PLAY Vanderbilt +9.5 Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt 3.8 pts PLAY Iowa +3.5 Iowa vs. Washington 3.8 pts PLAY South Florida +7 South Florida vs. UTSA 3.7 pts PLAY James Madison -7.5 James Madison vs. Georgia Southern 3.1 pts PLAY San Diego State +14.5 San Diego State vs. Oregon State 3.1 pts PLAY Hawai'i +20.5 Hawai'i vs. Arizona State 2.9 pts PLAY Akron +7 Eastern Michigan vs. Akron 2.9 pts PLAY BYU -10.5 Iowa State vs. BYU 2.4 pts PLAY Charlotte +28.5 Charlotte vs. North Texas 2.4 pts PLAY Nevada -9.5 Nevada vs. UTEP 2.0 pts PLAY Air Force -7.5 Air Force vs. Northern Illinois 1.9 pts PLAY Tennessee -13.5 Tennessee vs. Arkansas 1.8 pts PLAY Arizona -3 Arizona vs. West Virginia 1.8 pts PLAY Coastal Carolina +3 Coastal Carolina vs. Marshall 1.7 pts PLAY Louisiana +3 Louisiana vs. Louisiana Tech 1.7 pts PLAY Play: the side both models favor Odds API + CollegeFootballData SP+/FPI Click to enlarge

The plays

19 of the 30 games where both models agree on a side clear the 1.5-point edge floor this week, biggest edge first. The record takes the models' side.

#GamePlayEdgeResult
1 UCF vs. Oklahoma StateSat 10/10, 12:00 PM ET UCF +10Chives Ratio 1.94 6.1 loss UCF 28, Oklahoma State 42
2 North Carolina vs. PittsburghSat 10/10, 12:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -3.5Chives Ratio 0.46 5.3 loss North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 17
3 UAB vs. MemphisSat 10/10, 7:00 PM ET Memphis -14Chives Ratio 0.26 5.0 win UAB 13, Memphis 38
4 Kent State vs. Western MichiganSat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET Western Michigan -13.5Chives Ratio 0.23 4.1 win Kent State 7, Western Michigan 38
5 Ole Miss vs. VanderbiltSat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET Vanderbilt +9.5Chives Ratio 1.08 3.8 loss Ole Miss 52, Vanderbilt 17
6 Iowa vs. WashingtonFri 10/9, 9:00 PM ET Iowa +3.5Chives Ratio 1.27 3.8 win Iowa 41, Washington 24
7 South Florida vs. UTSAThu 10/8, 7:30 PM ET South Florida +7Chives Ratio 1.23 3.7 push South Florida 24, UTSA 31
8 James Madison vs. Georgia SouthernSat 10/10, 7:30 PM ET James Madison -7.5Chives Ratio 0.23 3.1 loss James Madison 27, Georgia Southern 24
9 San Diego State vs. Oregon StateSat 10/10, 6:00 PM ET San Diego State +14.5Chives Ratio 0.29 3.1 loss San Diego State 14, Oregon State 66
10 Hawai'i vs. Arizona StateSat 10/10, 10:30 PM ET Hawai'i +20.5Chives Ratio 0.18 2.9 win Hawai'i 12, Arizona State 30
11 Eastern Michigan vs. AkronSat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET Akron +7Chives Ratio 0.85 2.9 win Eastern Michigan 25, Akron 23
12 Iowa State vs. BYUFri 10/9, 10:15 PM ET BYU -10.5Chives Ratio 0.17 2.4 win Iowa State 10, BYU 24
13 Charlotte vs. North TexasSat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET Charlotte +28.5Chives Ratio 0.10 2.4 loss Charlotte 10, North Texas 50
14 Nevada vs. UTEPSat 10/10, 7:00 PM ET Nevada -9.5Chives Ratio 0.15 2.0 win Nevada 30, UTEP 13
15 Air Force vs. Northern IllinoisSat 10/10, 7:30 PM ET Air Force -7.5Chives Ratio 0.14 1.9 win Air Force 28, Northern Illinois 7
16 Tennessee vs. ArkansasSat 10/10, 4:15 PM ET Tennessee -13.5Chives Ratio 0.12 1.8 loss Tennessee 24, Arkansas 17
17 Arizona vs. West VirginiaSat 10/10, 12:00 PM ET Arizona -3Chives Ratio 0.31 1.8 win Arizona 52, West Virginia 31
18 Coastal Carolina vs. MarshallSat 10/10, 7:00 PM ET Coastal Carolina +3Chives Ratio 0.57 1.7 win Coastal Carolina 27, Marshall 21
19 Louisiana vs. Louisiana TechSat 10/10, 7:30 PM ET Louisiana +3Chives Ratio 0.57 1.7 win Louisiana 31, Louisiana Tech 32

Every game

All 55 games, ranked by dual edge
GameMarket (home)SP+FPI EdgeMarginRatioModel side
UCF vs. Oklahoma StateSat 10/10, 12:00 PM ET Oklahoma State -10 -3.9 -2.4 6.1 3.1 1.94 UCF Play
North Carolina vs. PittsburghSat 10/10, 12:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -3.5 -14.1 -8.8 5.3 11.4 0.46 Pittsburgh Play
UAB vs. MemphisSat 10/10, 7:00 PM ET Memphis -14 -19.0 -19.9 5.0 19.4 0.26 Memphis Play
Kent State vs. Western MichiganSat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET Western Michigan -13.5 -17.6 -18.7 4.1 18.1 0.23 Western Michigan Play
Ole Miss vs. VanderbiltSat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET Vanderbilt +9.75 +1.2 +5.9 3.8 3.5 1.08 Vanderbilt Play
Iowa vs. WashingtonFri 10/9, 9:00 PM ET Washington -3.5 +0.3 +4.5 3.8 2.4 1.27 Iowa Play
South Florida vs. UTSAThu 10/8, 7:30 PM ET UTSA -7 +2.5 -3.3 3.7 2.9 1.23 South Florida Play
James Madison vs. Georgia SouthernSat 10/10, 7:30 PM ET Georgia Southern +7.5 +16.1 +10.6 3.1 13.4 0.23 James Madison Play
San Diego State vs. Oregon StateSat 10/10, 6:00 PM ET Oregon State -14.5 -11.4 -10.3 3.1 10.9 0.29 San Diego State Play
Hawai'i vs. Arizona StateSat 10/10, 10:30 PM ET Arizona State -20.5 -17.6 -14.0 2.9 15.8 0.18 Hawai'i Play
Eastern Michigan vs. AkronSat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET Akron +7 +2.7 +4.1 2.9 3.4 0.85 Akron Play
Iowa State vs. BYUFri 10/9, 10:15 PM ET BYU -10.5 -15.3 -12.9 2.4 14.1 0.17 BYU Play
Charlotte vs. North TexasSat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET North Texas -28.5 -24.0 -26.1 2.4 25.1 0.10 Charlotte Play
Nevada vs. UTEPSat 10/10, 7:00 PM ET UTEP +9.5 +15.1 +11.5 2.0 13.3 0.15 Nevada Play
Air Force vs. Northern IllinoisSat 10/10, 7:30 PM ET Northern Illinois +7.5 +18.1 +9.4 1.9 13.8 0.14 Air Force Play
Tennessee vs. ArkansasSat 10/10, 4:15 PM ET Arkansas +13.5 +15.6 +15.3 1.8 15.4 0.12 Tennessee Play
Arizona vs. West VirginiaSat 10/10, 12:00 PM ET West Virginia +3 +6.9 +4.8 1.8 5.8 0.31 Arizona Play
Coastal Carolina vs. MarshallSat 10/10, 7:00 PM ET Marshall -3 -1.3 -0.8 1.7 1.1 0.57 Coastal Carolina Play
Louisiana vs. Louisiana TechSat 10/10, 7:30 PM ET Louisiana Tech -3 +4.4 -1.3 1.7 2.9 0.57 Louisiana Play
Central Michigan vs. OhioSat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET Ohio -3 -10.6 -4.4 1.4 7.5 0.19 Ohio
Buffalo vs. ToledoSat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET Toledo -21 -19.9 -19.3 1.1 19.6 0.06 Buffalo
Washington State vs. Utah StateFri 10/9, 9:00 PM ET Utah State -5.5 -2.4 -4.6 0.9 3.5 0.26 Washington State
Rice vs. East CarolinaSat 10/10, 4:00 PM ET East Carolina -10 -14.7 -10.9 0.9 12.8 0.07 East Carolina
South Alabama vs. Arkansas StateThu 10/8, 7:30 PM ET Arkansas State -1.5 -8.3 -2.3 0.8 5.3 0.15 Arkansas State
Maryland vs. Ohio StateSat 10/10, 4:15 PM ET Ohio State -34.5 -27.3 -33.7 0.8 30.5 0.03 Maryland
Duke vs. Georgia TechSat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET Georgia Tech +7 +7.9 +7.7 0.7 7.8 0.09 Duke
LSU vs. KentuckySat 10/10, 7:00 PM ET Kentucky +8.5 +10.9 +9.2 0.7 10.1 0.07 LSU
Tulsa vs. NavySat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET Navy -2.5 -2.1 +0.7 0.4 1.4 0.13 Tulsa
Stanford vs. Notre DameSat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET Notre Dame -38.5 -38.9 -40.8 0.4 39.8 0.01 Notre Dame
Georgia vs. AlabamaSat 10/10, 7:30 PM ET Alabama -1.5 +4.8 -1.2 0.3 3.0 0.10 Georgia
Minnesota vs. PurdueSat 10/10, 8:00 PM ET Purdue +2.5 +10.5 +1.0 0.0 5.8 0.00 Split
Wyoming vs. San José StateFri 10/9, 9:00 PM ET San José State -6.5 +0.0 -8.3 0.0 4.2 0.00 Split
Tulane vs. ArmySat 10/10, 12:00 PM ET Army -3 -8.9 -2.1 0.0 5.5 0.00 Split
Houston vs. Kansas StateSat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET Kansas State -2.5 -4.3 +1.0 0.0 2.6 0.00 Split
UCLA vs. OregonSat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET Oregon -11.5 -10.2 -13.7 0.0 12.0 0.00 Split
Indiana vs. NebraskaSat 10/10, 12:00 PM ET Nebraska +7.5 +7.6 +6.5 0.0 7.0 0.00 Split
Wake Forest vs. NC StateSat 10/10, 12:00 PM ET NC State +3.5 -2.1 +5.3 0.0 3.7 0.00 Split
USC vs. Penn StateSat 10/10, 7:30 PM ET Penn State -1.5 -1.5 -1.9 0.0 1.7 0.00 Split
North Dakota State vs. UNLVSat 10/10, 7:00 PM ET UNLV +3 +7.8 -0.2 0.0 4.0 0.00 Split
Missouri State vs. Western KentuckyThu 10/8, 7:00 PM ET Western Kentucky -2.5 -3.6 +0.5 0.0 2.1 0.00 Split
Sacramento State vs. Bowling GreenSat 10/10, 12:00 PM ET Bowling Green -7.5 +1.1 -10.4 0.0 5.8 0.00 Split
Kansas vs. UtahSat 10/10, 10:15 PM ET Utah -15.5 -22.9 -15.3 0.0 19.1 0.00 Split
Ball State vs. NorthwesternSat 10/10, 12:30 PM ET Northwestern -37 -34.7 -38.9 0.0 36.8 0.00 Split
Florida State vs. LouisvilleFri 10/9, 7:00 PM ET Louisville -3.5 -6.6 -1.0 0.0 3.8 0.00 Split
UConn vs. TempleSat 10/10, 3:45 PM ET Temple -3.5 +0.0 -5.0 0.0 2.5 0.00 Split
Texas vs. OklahomaSat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET Oklahoma +8 +7.2 +11.7 0.0 9.4 0.00 Split
Illinois vs. Michigan StateSat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET Michigan State +2.5 +5.8 +0.9 0.0 3.3 0.00 Split
South Carolina vs. FloridaSat 10/10, 12:45 PM ET Florida -12.5 -13.4 -8.3 0.0 10.8 0.00 Split
New Mexico State vs. Florida InternationalWed 10/7, 7:30 PM ET Florida International -6.5 -12.6 -2.4 0.0 7.5 0.00 Split
Texas A&M vs. MissouriSat 10/10, 12:00 PM ET Missouri -3.5 -7.2 -0.4 0.0 3.8 0.00 Split
Virginia Tech vs. CaliforniaSat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET California +9.5 +13.1 +9.3 0.0 11.2 0.00 Split
Sam Houston vs. LibertyThu 10/8, 7:00 PM ET Liberty -13.5 -19.0 -12.9 0.0 15.9 0.00 Split
Boise State vs. Fresno StateSat 10/10, 10:30 PM ET Fresno State +6.5 +5.5 +7.8 0.0 6.6 0.00 Split
Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw StateWed 10/7, 7:00 PM ET Kennesaw State +3 +7.1 -1.4 0.0 4.2 0.00 Split
Syracuse vs. VirginiaSat 10/10, 7:30 PM ET Virginia -9.5 -18.0 -9.3 0.0 13.7 0.00 Split

Spreads are from the home team's side (negative = home favored). SP+ and FPI columns are each model's projected home spread. Edge is the dual edge in points; Ratio is the Chives Ratio (edge over projected margin). "Split" means the models disagree.

Previous week: Week 5 data report