Week 7 · Data report
Week 7 College Football Model: Every Game Through SP+ and FPI
All 54 Week 7 games ranked by the edge two independent models find against the market, with this week's 17 plays and a free Excel download.
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week's plays, team stats, and the season record.
This week's plays
17
of 54 games
This week
0-2
-2.00u, 15 pending
Season
60-48-3
+6.60u
A play is every game where SP+ and FPI agree on a side with a dual edge of 1.5+ points, taken at the consensus spread as of publication (a quarter point rounds against the play), -110, 1 unit. How it works
The plays
17 of the 37 games where both models agree on a side clear the 1.5-point edge floor this week, biggest edge first. The record takes the models' side.
| # | Game | Play | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pittsburgh vs. Boston CollegeSat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh -6.5Chives Ratio 0.48 | 6.5 | pending |
| 2 | Arizona State vs. Texas TechSat 10/17, 3:30 PM ET | Texas Tech -14.5Chives Ratio 0.28 | 5.9 | pending |
| 3 | Florida vs. TexasSat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | Texas -10.5Chives Ratio 0.31 | 4.8 | pending |
| 4 | Colorado State vs. Texas StateThu 10/15, 8:00 PM ET | Colorado State +14.5Chives Ratio 0.48 | 4.5 | loss Colorado State 27, Texas State 66 |
| 5 | New Mexico vs. Hawai'iSat 10/17, 10:30 PM ET | New Mexico -15Chives Ratio 0.21 | 4.4 | pending |
| 6 | East Carolina vs. UABThu 10/15, 7:30 PM ET | East Carolina -4.5Chives Ratio 0.45 | 3.9 | loss East Carolina 17, UAB 30 |
| 7 | Louisville vs. SyracuseSat 10/17, 7:30 PM ET | Syracuse +14.5Chives Ratio 0.35 | 3.5 | pending |
| 8 | Akron vs. Miami (OH)Sat 10/17, 3:30 PM ET | Miami (OH) -10Chives Ratio 0.21 | 3.3 | pending |
| 9 | Cincinnati vs. West VirginiaSat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | Cincinnati +1.5Chives Ratio 1.03 | 3.1 | pending |
| 10 | Ohio State vs. IndianaSat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | Indiana +3.5Chives Ratio 1.03 | 3.1 | pending |
| 11 | Missouri vs. Ole MissSat 10/17, 3:30 PM ET | Missouri +6Chives Ratio 1.00 | 3.0 | pending |
| 12 | Western Michigan vs. Central MichiganSat 10/17, 1:30 PM ET | Western Michigan -7Chives Ratio 0.28 | 3.0 | pending |
| 13 | Northwestern vs. Michigan StateSat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | Northwestern -7.5Chives Ratio 0.22 | 2.7 | pending |
| 14 | Mississippi State vs. LSUSat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | Mississippi State +14Chives Ratio 0.22 | 2.5 | pending |
| 15 | Louisiana Tech vs. UL MonroeSat 10/17, 8:00 PM ET | Louisiana Tech -15Chives Ratio 0.13 | 2.4 | pending |
| 16 | Virginia vs. SMUSat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | Virginia +9Chives Ratio 0.41 | 2.3 | pending |
| 17 | Fresno State vs. San Diego StateSat 10/17, 10:30 PM ET | Fresno State -7.5Chives Ratio 0.20 | 2.1 | pending |
Every game
All 54 games, ranked by dual edge
| Game | Market (home) | SP+ | FPI | Edge | Margin | Ratio | Model side | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh vs. Boston CollegeSat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | Boston College +6.5 | +13.0 | +14.3 | 6.5 | 13.6 | 0.48 | Pittsburgh | Play |
| Arizona State vs. Texas TechSat 10/17, 3:30 PM ET | Texas Tech -14.5 | -20.4 | -21.3 | 5.9 | 20.9 | 0.28 | Texas Tech | Play |
| Florida vs. TexasSat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | Texas -10.5 | -15.8 | -15.3 | 4.8 | 15.6 | 0.31 | Texas | Play |
| Colorado State vs. Texas StateThu 10/15, 8:00 PM ET | Texas State -14.5 | -10.0 | -8.9 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 0.48 | Colorado State | Play |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'iSat 10/17, 10:30 PM ET | Hawai'i +15 | +22.8 | +19.4 | 4.4 | 21.1 | 0.21 | New Mexico | Play |
| East Carolina vs. UABThu 10/15, 7:30 PM ET | UAB +4.5 | +9.1 | +8.4 | 3.9 | 8.8 | 0.45 | East Carolina | Play |
| Louisville vs. SyracuseSat 10/17, 7:30 PM ET | Syracuse +14.5 | +11.0 | +9.2 | 3.5 | 10.1 | 0.35 | Syracuse | Play |
| Akron vs. Miami (OH)Sat 10/17, 3:30 PM ET | Miami (OH) -10 | -18.4 | -13.3 | 3.3 | 15.8 | 0.21 | Miami (OH) | Play |
| Cincinnati vs. West VirginiaSat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | West Virginia -1.5 | +3.5 | +1.6 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.03 | Cincinnati | Play |
| Ohio State vs. IndianaSat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | Indiana +3.5 | +0.4 | +0.3 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 1.03 | Indiana | Play |
| Missouri vs. Ole MissSat 10/17, 3:30 PM ET | Ole Miss -6 | -0.3 | -3.0 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.00 | Missouri | Play |
| Western Michigan vs. Central MichiganSat 10/17, 1:30 PM ET | Central Michigan +7 | +11.1 | +10.0 | 3.0 | 10.6 | 0.28 | Western Michigan | Play |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan StateSat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | Michigan State +7.5 | +14.4 | +10.2 | 2.7 | 12.3 | 0.22 | Northwestern | Play |
| Mississippi State vs. LSUSat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | LSU -14 | -11.5 | -11.1 | 2.5 | 11.3 | 0.22 | Mississippi State | Play |
| Louisiana Tech vs. UL MonroeSat 10/17, 8:00 PM ET | UL Monroe +15 | +20.1 | +17.4 | 2.4 | 18.8 | 0.13 | Louisiana Tech | Play |
| Virginia vs. SMUSat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | SMU -9 | -6.7 | -4.5 | 2.3 | 5.6 | 0.41 | Virginia | Play |
| Fresno State vs. San Diego StateSat 10/17, 10:30 PM ET | San Diego State +7.5 | +11.5 | +9.6 | 2.1 | 10.5 | 0.20 | Fresno State | Play |
| Alabama vs. TennesseeSat 10/17, 3:30 PM ET | Tennessee +8.5 | +3.9 | +7.0 | 1.5 | 5.5 | 0.28 | Tennessee | |
| Tulsa vs. RiceSat 10/17, 4:30 PM ET | Rice +4.5 | +5.9 | +5.9 | 1.4 | 5.9 | 0.24 | Tulsa | |
| Washington vs. PurdueFri 10/16, 8:00 PM ET | Purdue -3.5 | +3.1 | -2.2 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 0.43 | Washington | |
| San José State vs. UTEPSat 10/17, 9:00 PM ET | UTEP +7.5 | +10.0 | +8.6 | 1.1 | 9.3 | 0.12 | San José State | |
| Wake Forest vs. CaliforniaSat 10/17, 10:30 PM ET | California +9.5 | +10.6 | +13.0 | 1.1 | 11.8 | 0.09 | Wake Forest | |
| Nebraska vs. OregonSat 10/17, 11:00 PM ET | Oregon -7.5 | -6.5 | -4.5 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 0.18 | Nebraska | |
| Auburn vs. GeorgiaSat 10/17, 3:30 PM ET | Georgia -20.5 | -19.7 | -19.7 | 0.8 | 19.7 | 0.04 | Auburn | |
| Kent State vs. South FloridaSat 10/17, 7:00 PM ET | South Florida -20.5 | -25.6 | -21.3 | 0.8 | 23.5 | 0.03 | South Florida | |
| Utah vs. ColoradoSat 10/17, 10:15 PM ET | Colorado +16 | +23.5 | +16.8 | 0.8 | 20.1 | 0.04 | Utah | |
| Ball State vs. Bowling GreenSat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | Bowling Green -6.5 | -9.7 | -7.2 | 0.7 | 8.5 | 0.08 | Bowling Green | |
| Ohio vs. Sacramento StateSat 10/17, 10:00 PM ET | Sacramento State +15 | +15.6 | +17.8 | 0.6 | 16.7 | 0.04 | Ohio | |
| Penn State vs. MichiganSat 10/17, 3:30 PM ET | Michigan -6.5 | -5.9 | -0.8 | 0.6 | 3.4 | 0.18 | Penn State | |
| Kennesaw State vs. Missouri StateWed 10/14, 7:30 PM ET | Missouri State +3 | +7.3 | +3.6 | 0.6 | 5.4 | 0.11 | Kennesaw State | |
| Rutgers vs. MarylandSat 10/17, 12:30 PM ET | Maryland -4.5 | -5.7 | -5.0 | 0.5 | 5.3 | 0.09 | Maryland | |
| Kentucky vs. OklahomaSat 10/17, 7:30 PM ET | Oklahoma -7 | -6.6 | -5.8 | 0.4 | 6.2 | 0.06 | Kentucky | |
| Western Kentucky vs. Sam HoustonWed 10/14, 8:00 PM ET | Sam Houston +1.5 | +1.1 | -1.4 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.13 | Sam Houston | |
| UNLV vs. Air ForceSat 10/17, 3:30 PM ET | Air Force +1 | -4.7 | +0.6 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 0.13 | Air Force | |
| Toledo vs. Eastern MichiganSat 10/17, 3:30 PM ET | Eastern Michigan +6.5 | +6.7 | +8.6 | 0.2 | 7.6 | 0.03 | Toledo | |
| Florida State vs. MiamiSat 10/17, 7:00 PM ET | Miami -21.5 | -24.4 | -21.7 | 0.2 | 23.0 | 0.01 | Miami | |
| Washington State vs. Oregon StateSat 10/17, 6:00 PM ET | Oregon State -17.5 | -20.6 | -17.6 | 0.1 | 19.1 | 0.01 | Oregon State | |
| Navy vs. UTSASat 10/17, 8:00 PM ET | UTSA -7 | -3.4 | -7.4 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Wisconsin vs. UCLASat 10/17, 7:30 PM ET | UCLA -2.5 | -7.2 | -2.4 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Nevada vs. North Dakota StateSat 10/17, 7:00 PM ET | North Dakota State -14.5 | -15.3 | -11.0 | 0.0 | 13.1 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Memphis vs. TulaneFri 10/16, 7:30 PM ET | Tulane +7 | +12.8 | +5.3 | 0.0 | 9.1 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Oklahoma State vs. HoustonSat 10/17, 7:30 PM ET | Houston -4.5 | -4.3 | -8.9 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Northern Illinois vs. WyomingSat 10/17, 3:30 PM ET | Wyoming -8 | -12.1 | -4.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Georgia Southern vs. Old DominionThu 10/15, 7:30 PM ET | Old Dominion +3.5 | +2.9 | +5.7 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 0.00 | Split | |
| North Carolina vs. DukeSat 10/17, 3:30 PM ET | Duke -3 | -5.7 | -1.8 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Kansas vs. Kansas StateSat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | Kansas State -5 | -6.2 | -4.3 | 0.0 | 5.2 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Notre Dame vs. BYUSat 10/17, 7:30 PM ET | BYU +10.5 | +4.1 | +11.4 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Arkansas vs. VanderbiltSat 10/17, 7:00 PM ET | Vanderbilt -6 | -6.0 | -2.4 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Georgia Tech vs. Virginia TechSat 10/17, 3:30 PM ET | Virginia Tech -10 | -10.6 | -8.5 | 0.0 | 9.6 | 0.00 | Split | |
| TCU vs. BaylorSat 10/17, 7:00 PM ET | Baylor -6 | -5.9 | -6.9 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Florida Atlantic vs. ArmySat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | Army -2.5 | -1.4 | -6.9 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Troy vs. LouisianaSat 10/17, 5:00 PM ET | Louisiana -4.5 | -6.7 | -3.9 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Charlotte vs. TempleSat 10/17, 1:00 PM ET | Temple -21 | -24.5 | -20.2 | 0.0 | 22.3 | 0.00 | Split | |
| Georgia State vs. James MadisonSat 10/17, 12:00 PM ET | James Madison -12 | -16.6 | -11.0 | 0.0 | 13.8 | 0.00 | Split |
Spreads are from the home team's side (negative = home favored). SP+ and FPI columns are each model's projected home spread. Edge is the dual edge in points; Ratio is the Chives Ratio (edge over projected margin). "Split" means the models disagree.
Previous week: Week 6 data report
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