Week 8 · Data report

Week 8 College Football Model: Every Game Through SP+ and FPI

Name: Week 8 College Football Model: Every Game Through SP+ and FPI
Creator: CFB Alpha
Published: 2026-10-22T12:11:17.573049+00:00
Keywords: Tennessee vs South Carolina prediction, UL Monroe vs Troy prediction, Boise State vs Washington State prediction, Bowling Green vs Buffalo prediction, Kansas State vs Arizona State prediction, Air Force vs Wyoming prediction, BYU vs UCF prediction, Texas Tech vs Cincinnati prediction, Ole Miss vs Texas prediction, Army vs Tulsa prediction, college football model, college football predictions

All 49 Week 8 games ranked by the edge two independent models find against the market, with this week's 14 plays and a free Excel download.

CFB Alpha /October 22, 2026 /Lines as of Thu Oct 22, 2026 at 8:10 AM ET

Download the full board (Excel) Free. All 49 games with live formulas, this week's plays, team stats, and the season record.

This week's plays 14 of 49 games

This week Pendingresults post as games finish

Season 64-58-4 +0.24u

Season ROI +0.2% Full record

A play is every game where SP+ and FPI agree on a side with a dual edge of 1.5+ points, taken at the consensus spread as of publication (a quarter point rounds against the play), -110, 1 unit. How it works

Click to enlarge

The plays

14 of the 33 games where both models agree on a side clear the 1.5-point edge floor this week, biggest edge first. The record takes the models' side.

#	Game	Play	Edge	Result
1	Tennessee vs. South CarolinaSat 10/24, 3:30 PM ET	Tennessee +2.5Chives Ratio 1.43	6.6	pending
2	UL Monroe vs. TroySat 10/24, 4:00 PM ET	Troy -14Chives Ratio 0.26	5.1	pending
3	Boise State vs. Washington StateSat 10/24, 6:00 PM ET	Boise State -13Chives Ratio 0.27	5.0	pending
4	Bowling Green vs. BuffaloSat 10/24, 3:30 PM ET	Buffalo -3Chives Ratio 0.55	4.2	pending
5	Kansas State vs. Arizona StateSat 10/24, 3:45 PM ET	Kansas State -2.5Chives Ratio 0.52	4.0	pending
6	Air Force vs. WyomingFri 10/23, 9:00 PM ET	Air Force -4.5Chives Ratio 0.40	3.9	pending
7	BYU vs. UCFSat 10/24, 3:30 PM ET	BYU -6.5Chives Ratio 0.27	3.3	pending
8	Texas Tech vs. CincinnatiSat 10/24, 12:00 PM ET	Texas Tech -10.5Chives Ratio 0.22	3.0	pending
9	Ole Miss vs. TexasSat 10/24, 7:30 PM ET	Texas -3.5Chives Ratio 0.43	2.9	pending
10	Army vs. TulsaFri 10/23, 8:30 PM ET	Army +1.5Chives Ratio 0.93	2.8	pending
11	Oklahoma vs. Mississippi StateSat 10/24, 3:30 PM ET	Mississippi State +4.5Chives Ratio 0.90	2.7	pending
12	Rutgers vs. NorthwesternSat 10/24, 12:00 PM ET	Northwestern -16.5Chives Ratio 0.11	2.1	pending
13	Georgia State vs. Arkansas StateSat 10/24, 7:00 PM ET	Arkansas State +2Chives Ratio 0.60	1.8	pending
14	Iowa vs. MinnesotaSat 10/24, 3:30 PM ET	Iowa -6.5Chives Ratio 0.17	1.6	pending

Every game

All 49 games, ranked by dual edge

Game	Market (home)	SP+	FPI	Edge	Margin	Ratio	Model side
Tennessee vs. South CarolinaSat 10/24, 3:30 PM ET	South Carolina -2.5	+5.1	+4.1	6.6	4.6	1.43	Tennessee	Play
UL Monroe vs. TroySat 10/24, 4:00 PM ET	Troy -14	-20.8	-19.1	5.1	19.9	0.26	Troy	Play
Boise State vs. Washington StateSat 10/24, 6:00 PM ET	Washington State +13	+19.1	+18.0	5.0	18.6	0.27	Boise State	Play
Bowling Green vs. BuffaloSat 10/24, 3:30 PM ET	Buffalo -3	-8.1	-7.2	4.2	7.6	0.55	Buffalo	Play
Kansas State vs. Arizona StateSat 10/24, 3:45 PM ET	Arizona State +2.5	+8.9	+6.5	4.0	7.7	0.52	Kansas State	Play
Air Force vs. WyomingFri 10/23, 9:00 PM ET	Wyoming +4.5	+8.4	+10.9	3.9	9.7	0.40	Air Force	Play
BYU vs. UCFSat 10/24, 3:30 PM ET	UCF +6.5	+14.2	+9.8	3.3	12.0	0.27	BYU	Play
Texas Tech vs. CincinnatiSat 10/24, 12:00 PM ET	Cincinnati +10.5	+14.3	+13.5	3.0	13.9	0.22	Texas Tech	Play
Ole Miss vs. TexasSat 10/24, 7:30 PM ET	Texas -3.5	-6.4	-7.2	2.9	6.8	0.43	Texas	Play
Army vs. TulsaFri 10/23, 8:30 PM ET	Tulsa -1.5	+1.5	+1.3	2.8	1.4	0.93	Army	Play
Oklahoma vs. Mississippi StateSat 10/24, 3:30 PM ET	Mississippi State +4.5	+0.1	+1.8	2.7	1.0	0.90	Mississippi State	Play
Rutgers vs. NorthwesternSat 10/24, 12:00 PM ET	Northwestern -16.5	-18.8	-18.6	2.1	18.7	0.11	Northwestern	Play
Georgia State vs. Arkansas StateSat 10/24, 7:00 PM ET	Arkansas State +2	-3.3	+0.2	1.8	1.7	0.60	Arkansas State	Play
Iowa vs. MinnesotaSat 10/24, 3:30 PM ET	Minnesota +6.5	+8.1	+10.9	1.6	9.5	0.17	Iowa	Play
Oregon vs. IllinoisSat 10/24, 3:00 PM ET	Illinois +9	+10.4	+12.2	1.4	11.3	0.12	Oregon
Hawai'i vs. Northern IllinoisSat 10/24, 3:30 PM ET	Northern Illinois +4	+10.0	+5.4	1.4	7.7	0.18	Hawai'i
NC State vs. StanfordFri 10/23, 10:30 PM ET	Stanford +6.5	+7.8	+10.1	1.3	8.9	0.15	NC State
Indiana vs. MichiganSat 10/24, 12:00 PM ET	Michigan +7	+8.2	+12.1	1.2	10.1	0.12	Indiana
Syracuse vs. North CarolinaSat 10/24, 7:30 PM ET	North Carolina -8.5	-9.7	-10.6	1.2	10.1	0.12	North Carolina
West Virginia vs. TCUSat 10/24, 12:00 PM ET	TCU -9.5	-13.3	-10.6	1.1	11.9	0.09	TCU
Texas A&M vs. AlabamaSat 10/24, 3:30 PM ET	Alabama -14	-11.0	-13.1	0.9	12.1	0.07	Texas A&M
Sacramento State vs. Ball StateSat 10/24, 3:30 PM ET	Ball State -14.5	-7.0	-13.7	0.8	10.3	0.08	Sacramento State
Boston College vs. Georgia TechSat 10/24, 3:30 PM ET	Georgia Tech -4.5	-7.5	-5.3	0.8	6.4	0.12	Georgia Tech
USC vs. WisconsinSat 10/24, 7:30 PM ET	Wisconsin +3	+4.6	+3.5	0.5	4.0	0.12	USC
Baylor vs. KansasSat 10/24, 1:00 PM ET	Kansas +2.5	+3.0	+3.9	0.5	3.5	0.14	Baylor
San José State vs. NevadaSat 10/24, 5:00 PM ET	Nevada -6	-7.1	-6.5	0.5	6.8	0.07	Nevada
Pittsburgh vs. MiamiSat 10/24, 12:00 PM ET	Miami -20	-18.3	-19.7	0.3	19.0	0.02	Pittsburgh
Old Dominion vs. Louisiana TechSat 10/24, 5:00 PM ET	Louisiana Tech -13	-9.8	-12.7	0.3	11.2	0.03	Old Dominion
Rice vs. Florida AtlanticSat 10/24, 12:00 PM ET	Florida Atlantic -7.5	-14.0	-7.7	0.2	10.9	0.02	Florida Atlantic
Virginia Tech vs. ClemsonSat 10/24, 7:00 PM ET	Clemson -2.5	+2.5	-2.3	0.2	2.4	0.07	Virginia Tech
Liberty vs. Kennesaw StateThu 10/22, 7:00 PM ET	Kennesaw State +9.5	+15.9	+9.7	0.2	12.8	0.02	Liberty
East Carolina vs. MemphisThu 10/22, 7:30 PM ET	Memphis -10.5	-12.7	-10.6	0.1	11.7	0.01	Memphis
Akron vs. Kent StateSat 10/24, 1:00 PM ET	Kent State -3	-3.0	-2.2	0.0	2.6	0.00	Akron
Western Michigan vs. ToledoSat 10/24, 12:00 PM ET	Toledo -3	-5.7	-1.5	0.0	3.6	0.00	Split
Eastern Michigan vs. OhioSat 10/24, 4:00 PM ET	Ohio -12	-14.8	-12.0	0.0	13.4	0.00	Split
LSU vs. AuburnSat 10/24, 12:00 PM ET	Auburn +7.5	+11.3	+7.2	0.0	9.2	0.00	Split
Iowa State vs. ArizonaSat 10/24, 7:30 PM ET	Arizona -10	-17.1	-8.6	0.0	12.8	0.00	Split
Houston vs. UtahSat 10/24, 10:15 PM ET	Utah -6.5	-7.5	-5.0	0.0	6.2	0.00	Split
Miami (OH) vs. Central MichiganSat 10/24, 1:00 PM ET	Central Michigan +2.5	+10.0	+2.1	0.0	6.0	0.00	Split
Michigan State vs. UCLASat 10/24, 3:30 PM ET	UCLA -15	-17.5	-11.7	0.0	14.6	0.00	Split
Colorado vs. Oklahoma StateSat 10/24, 7:00 PM ET	Oklahoma State -13	-15.8	-10.4	0.0	13.1	0.00	Split
Duke vs. VirginiaFri 10/23, 7:00 PM ET	Virginia -1.5	-2.5	-0.2	0.0	1.3	0.00	Split
California vs. SMUSat 10/24, 12:00 PM ET	SMU -19	-21.5	-16.1	0.0	18.8	0.00	Split
North Texas vs. NavySat 10/24, 3:30 PM ET	Navy +2.5	-3.5	+5.2	0.0	4.3	0.00	Split
Utah State vs. Texas StateSat 10/24, 7:30 PM ET	Texas State -13.5	-13.9	-9.9	0.0	11.9	0.00	Split
San Diego State vs. Colorado StateSat 10/24, 6:30 PM ET	Colorado State +1	-1.5	+1.4	0.0	1.4	0.00	Split
Vanderbilt vs. KentuckySat 10/24, 7:30 PM ET	Kentucky -10.5	-9.9	-14.6	0.0	12.2	0.00	Split
UTSA vs. TulaneSat 10/24, 8:00 PM ET	Tulane +2.5	+5.0	-3.1	0.0	4.0	0.00	Split
North Dakota State vs. New MexicoSat 10/24, 10:00 PM ET	New Mexico -4.5	-3.5	-10.4	0.0	7.0	0.00	Split

Spreads are from the home team's side (negative = home favored). SP+ and FPI columns are each model's projected home spread. Edge is the dual edge in points; Ratio is the Chives Ratio (edge over projected margin). "Split" means the models disagree.

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